Ticker for December 1, 2023

                
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December 1, 2023   December 1, 2023   December 1, 2023   December 1, 2023


Warmcember




Hey now, I don't know what you expect from your Decembers around your neck of
the woods, but I've been  putting my coat back on the rack and kept my shorts
and t-shirts handy.



Maybe it was 2021's crazy-(insert your favorite expletive here) December when
we were 10 degrees above normal and beat the previous coldest December by more
than 5 degrees.

Yes, 5 degrees! Never have I seen a previous "warmest month" so outpaced by
that amount. December also has the craziest "coldest month" record by 1983.
Hmmm, I might need to adjust my thinking. But not for this month, probably. It
does look like it will remain fairly warm for the first 2 weeks of the month,
but I wouldn't bet on it remaining that way, like December 2021.



I've been wrong on my bets before, obviously. My subscription to the "Hairbrush
of the Month Club" 30 years ago didn't help as planned. However, I'm still
feeling good with my bets on the cardboard futures market. I did, after all, buy
3 tons of it at 15 cents/ton, and at current look it's up to 18 cents/ton.

Yeah, you do the math!

Speaking of math, sometimes forecasts can go bad on the good side (or go good
on the bad side?). The rainfall predictions were exceeded for some parts of the
state, and ended up with a bit extry (Okie to English translation: extra).





Whatever the result, we'll take it. Some folks needed a lot more (and some,
"some" at all), but there will be other chances during December, I'm betting.
(See betting results above).

Now we sit back and watch the temperatures climb from today's week-long low
to 60s and maybe a few 70s by the end of next week, as we remember November
fondly below.

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November Provides Wintry Preview
Dec. 1, 2023

The Oklahoma Mesonet’s temperature data tell the story of a dry and unusually
warm November, but there was actually a good dose of winter during the month,
as well as a nice measure of rain at the end. The state’s first significant
wintry precipitation of the season fell in the state on Thanksgiving Weekend
across the northwestern half. Totals generally ranged between 2-4 inches, but a
swath of 4-6 inches occurred across far northwestern Oklahoma and the eastern
Panhandle. Isolated totals of 8-9 inches were reported in parts of Beaver and
Harper counties. Icy roads were suspected as a contributing factor in a pile-up
accident involving 22 vehicles soon after midnight on Nov. 26 in Oklahoma City.
One driver died when his vehicle rolled into the North Canadian River. On the
month's final day, another storm system brought predominantly rain to the
state, with widespread totals ranging from a half-inch to an inch. In far
southeastern Oklahoma, the storm delivered over 3 inches.







The statewide average temperature finished at 51 degrees according to
preliminary data from the Oklahoma Meosnet, 1.6 degrees above normal and ranked
as the 30th warmest November since records began in 1895. Temperatures ranged
from 95 degrees at Hollis on Nov. 7  to 6  degrees at Hooker on Nov. 25—the
lowest temperature recorded in the state since Eva’s 5 degrees back on March 19.
Wind chills plummeted below 10 degrees 55 times at the Mesonet’s 119 sites
during November’s late-month arctic blast, bottoming out with Hooker’s minus 7
degrees on the 25th. Eva led all Mesonet sites with 159 hours at or below
freezing during the month. All 119 sites had experienced a hard freeze with
temperatures at or below 28 degrees during November. Climatological fall ended
with a statewide average of 63.4 degrees, 2.2 degrees above normal and ranked
as the 13th warmest September through November on record. The season’s first
freeze occurred at Beaver on Oct. 7, and 2023’s presumptive final triple-digit
reading was on Sept. 23 at several locations. The January-November average
temperature was 63.6 degrees, 1.3 degrees above normal and ranked as the 14th
warmest such period on record.









The statewide average precipitation total was 1.48 inches, which fell 0.84
inches below normal and ranked as the 48th driest November since records began
in 1895. Totals ranged from 4.54 inches at Broken Bow to 0.01 inches at Kenton.
Thirty-five Mesonet sites recorded an inch or less for the month. Virtually the
entire state suffered a rainfall deficit for the month except for a few sites
across far northern Oklahoma that benefited from the late-month heavy snows,
and generally ranged from about half an inch to a bit more than 2 inches. The
fall season was 0.88 inches below normal and ranked as the 65th driest September
through November on record with a statewide average of 8.12 inches. The first 11
months of the year had an average rainfall total of 34.02 inches, the 54th
wettest January-November on record since 1895 with an average deficit of just
0.23 inches.



















Despite the dry month, drought coverage actually dropped in the state from 36%
at the end of October to 34% at the end of November, according to the U.S.
Drought Monitor. The most severe drought remained centered in far north central
and southwestern Oklahoma, where long-term rainfall deficits of 6 to 12 inches
persisted. The Climate Prediction Center’s outlooks for December indicate
increased odds for above normal precipitation across the eastern half of the
state and above normal temperatures across all of Oklahoma. Drought improvement
or removal is deemed likely for parts of south central Oklahoma in CPC’s
December drought outlook, but persistence is indicated for the rest of the state
where drought currently exists.







###

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org