Mesonet Ticker for March 12, 2026

                
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March 12, 2026     March 12, 2026     March 12, 2026     March 12, 2026


A hard lack of rain




"Oh where have you been, my Oklahoma friend?
Where have you wandered again?
I’ve walked through the Panhandle dust and the wind,
Watched radar loops spin without end.
I’ve stared at the models from morning till night,
Through every long forecast call,
But the cap’s sitting heavy on warm southern air…
And no hard rain’s a-gonna fall."

We've had the tornadoes, we've had the hail, we've (well, not me, nor you or
you or them) had the rain. Now, a time of drought and fire (the WORST "Game of
Thrones" book, by the way).

Next 7 days:



And then you see the top graphic for beyond that. And it gets worser and worser
(as does my speling).



The rains of the last couple of storm systems have put a dent in the 30-day
deficit maps in parts of southeast and northeast OK, and a few other places,
but it's still bleak in those areas that went without.





But the longer-term remains even bleaker. More bleak. Still not good!



And that's why, despite the rains, we still have 94% of the state in at least
Moderate (D1) drought, and 42% in at least Severe (D2).



Ugh. To make matters both worse AND better (warministas will know), we're also
gonna ramp up the temps, which definitely doesn't help the drought situation.



Yay!! I mean BOO!! And if you're reading this outside, BRRR!!!



Didja fall for the false end-of-winter? Well, throw away those frozen plants
and head back to Lowe's, but not just yet. A hard rain's not a-gonna fall, but
another hard freeze a-is Sunday.



Ya gotta think climatologically here (it's easy, just empty your brain...no,
nothing else, just empty). The average final spring freeze is still a few weeks
away for most of us.



But, for what we have cooking the next couple of weeks...more fire danger.





I guess if we want some good news, the Climate Prediction Center did issue an
"El Nino Watch" today for next fall and winter.

"The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the
NCEP CFSv2, points toward ENSO-neutral through the late Northern
Hemisphere Spring 2026, with a transition to El Niño thereafter. Even
though model forecasts are relatively less accurate this time of year, the
increasing odds of El Niño are supported by the large amount of heat in
the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade
winds. If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain,
with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be "strong" during October-December
2026 (Niño-3.4 ≥ +1.5°C). In summary, a transition from La Niña to
ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored
through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely
to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026."



We have to get through the "Spring predictability barrier" first, which just
means these forecasts are difficult until after spring, but as the summary
says, all that heat below the ocean's surface out there in the Equatorial
Pacific gives it some credence (no Clearwater Revival, I'm afraid...this day's
about Dylan).

This could be great news, especially if it's a strong El Nino. A weak El Nino
tends to give us drier than normal weather, so that's one to avoid. A long ways
away, but it's some hope. More than we have now, at least.

"Oh what did you hear, my Oklahoma friend?
What did the atmosphere say?
I heard forecasters mutter about “maybe next week,”
And talk of a boundary someday.
I heard someone whisper “the cap might erode,”
But the sounding looked solid and tall,
And the storms fired up out in New Mexico…
But no hard rain’s a-gonna fall."

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climate Survey
gmcmanus@ou.edu
                

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