Mesonet Ticker for November 2, 2026

                
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
November 2, 2026   November 2, 2026   November 2, 2026   November 2, 2026







Well THAT'S a map we didn't want to see. Looks more like May than
November, but then again it looks more like November than May, if'n you know
what I mean. Well, I'm not even sure *I* know what I mean, but I guess I mean
that Novembers have gotten pretty wild here recently. Heck, it was just two
years ago in 2024 (MATH!) that Oklahoma broke its November tornado record with
36.

Yes, you read that write, because I rote it! 36! And that total included 3 EF3
twisters and 2 EF2s.

Let's hope things don't turn that nasty today, but the potential is there to
see a few tornadoes.

Here's the setup: A powerful storm system moving out of the Southwest will
encounter unusually warm, humid air across Oklahoma today. A dryline will
sharpen across western Oklahoma this afternoon, providing the spark for
thunderstorms to develop. Meanwhile, winds will strengthen dramatically with
height, giving those storms plenty of opportunity to rotate.

The main severe weather threat should begin around 4-6 p.m. in western Oklahoma,
spread into central Oklahoma around 6-9 p.m., and continue eastward through the
evening and overnight. Initially, storms could remain isolated, allowing
supercells to develop with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. The
greatest tornado concern is across north-central Oklahoma into southern Kansas,
where strengthening winds closer to sunset could support a strong tornado or
two, potentially EF2 or greater.

And that's the big question today: Will storms remain isolated long enough to
take advantage of that environment? If they do, the tornado threat could become
more substantial. If they quickly merge into a line, damaging straight-line
winds become the bigger concern, although tornadoes embedded within that line
will remain possible.

Given all that, SPC has placed portions of Oklahoma under an Enhanced Risk
(Level 3 of 5), with tornado probabilities reaching 10%. That means a 10%
chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any given location in that
area, not a 10% chance of your house being hit.

And remember, sunset comes early these days. Some of our strongest storms could
arrive after dark, so remember to stay alert and have several ways to get...
uhhhhhhh, alerts.







We've had a long break from this stuff when drought took over and then the
storms, when they eventually came back, were more tropical than our normal
severe convection here in Oklahoma. Time to get back in Okie-preparedness mode.
Things may have gotten started early with a possible tornado out near Keyes
last night. We have record high minimum temperatures starting the day off
wrong, and moisture streaming in from the south.







You gotta get weather aware. Start tuning in to your local NWS Office, Emergency
Managers, and trusted media sources for developing weather to help keep you
and yours safe.

Let's just get some rain, and leave the other stuff out, okay?



Speaking of rain...

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Drought retreats, heat persists in October
Nov. 2, 2026

October brought Oklahoma its first sustained, widespread drought relief since
flash drought spread across the state in August. Heavy rains replenished
reservoirs and improved soil moisture across western and central Oklahoma,
although flooding damaged roads and forced water rescues in some of the hardest-
hit areas. The rain brought little interruption to the state’s exceptionally
warm year, however. Oklahoma recorded its fifth-warmest October, extending a
record-warm start to 2026.

Heavy rains trigger flooding
Preliminary data from the Oklahoma Mesonet showed statewide rainfall averaged
4.42 inches, 1.06 inches above normal, making it the state’s 25th-wettest
October since records began in 1895. A swath of sites from west-central into
central Oklahoma received two to four times their normal October rainfall, with
surpluses reaching 6 to 9 inches. Parts of eastern Oklahoma received less than
half their normal rainfall, with deficits of 2 to 4 inches near the Arkansas
border limiting drought relief there. Hinton led the Mesonet with 11.96 inches
of rain, including 8.71 inches on Oct. 14. Other observing networks reported
higher monthly totals in west-central Oklahoma, including 15.98 inches from a
volunteer observer near Hydro. That observer measured 11 inches on Oct. 14, the
fourth-highest one-day October rainfall total ever recorded in Oklahoma.
Valliant recorded the lowest Mesonet total at 1.02 inches.

Much of that rain came from two storm systems. The first carried over from late
September into Oct. 1, causing flooding across parts of south-central Oklahoma.
The second struck Oct. 13-15, concentrating its heaviest rain from west-central
through central Oklahoma. At Hydro, flooding washed out sections of Route 66,
ruptured a waterline and flooded an agricultural barn. In Kingfisher County,
flooding briefly closed U.S. 81 and State Highway 3. Crews also retrieved two
motorists from trees after they escaped their vehicle.







Rain puts a dent in drought
October’s rains brought substantial drought relief to Oklahoma. Extreme and
exceptional drought, the U.S. Drought Monitor’s two most intense categories,
covered 26% of the state by late October, down from 55% at the end of September.
Exceptional drought, the most intense category, shrank from 24% to 7%. Despite
those improvements, 87% of the state remained in at least moderate drought.

The relief extended beyond the Drought Monitor map. Soil moisture improved
considerably across much of western and central Oklahoma, with gains reaching
two feet below the surface. Runoff also replenished several drought-depleted
reservoirs. Arcadia rose approximately 6 feet between Oct. 13 and Oct. 19,
while Hefner and Overholser each gained roughly 5 feet during that period. By
late October, Hefner and Overholser were near their normal pool elevations.
Recovery remained uneven, however. Lugert-Altus gained several feet but
remained well below normal, while some eastern lakes continued to decline where
the heavier rains missed.







Heat keeps 2026 on a record pace
The rain brought drought relief, but October continued Oklahoma’s exceptionally
warm year. The statewide average temperature of 67 degrees was 5.7 degrees
above normal, making it the fifth-warmest October since records began in 1895.
Combined with September’s record heat, October produced Oklahoma’s warmest
September–October period on record. The two-month statewide average reached
74.8 degrees, a remarkable 7.8 degrees above normal. Every climate division
recorded its warmest September–October period.

That prolonged warmth pushed Oklahoma’s January–October average to 68.5 degrees,
a full 5 degrees above normal and 2.1 degrees above the previous record for
that period, set in 2012. With two months remaining, 2026 is positioned to
challenge 2012 as Oklahoma’s warmest calendar year on record. The season’s
first freeze arrived Oct. 16, when temperatures dropped to freezing or below at
Kenton, Eva and Hooker.





October by the numbers
• Statewide average temperature: 67°F, 5.7°F above normal — the fifth-warmest
October since records began in 1895
• Temperature extremes: High of 96°F at Fairview on Oct. 13; low of 27°F at
Beaver, Eva and Hooker on Oct. 17
• Highest heat index: 105°F at Broken Bow on Oct. 13
• Lowest wind chill: 19°F at Eva on Oct. 17
• Warmest and coolest locations: Highest monthly average, 70.0°F at Idabel;
lowest, 60.7°F at Boise City
• Statewide average precipitation: 4.42 inches, 1.06 inches above normal — 25th-
wettest October since 1895
• Rainfall extremes: High of 15.98 inches at Hydro; low of 1.02 inches at
Valliant

November offers more drought relief
October’s drought relief could carry into November. The Climate Prediction
Center favors above-normal rainfall across Oklahoma, with El Niño helping
support an active storm track across the southern United States. The
temperature outlook favors warmer-than-normal conditions across northern
Oklahoma, with equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal temperatures
farther south. The monthly drought outlook calls for widespread improvement
across Oklahoma, including drought removal in some areas.





Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climate Survey
gmcmanus@ou.edu
                

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