Mesonet Ticker for May 21, 2026

                
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Drought vs. Rain: Who will win?




It's a titanic battle for the ages! Good vs. evil. Cherry vs. strawberry. Your
intestines vs. Taco Bell.

Rain vs. drought.

And let's face it (I have to every morning in the mirror, why should you be
spared??), spring hasn't helped a lick for much of the state. Look at these
terrible maps. LOOK, I say!







And the stats ain't much better!



Climatological spring ends in 10 days at the end of May, but of course our
spring rainy season extends well into June as well. Well squared, I guess.



Those normal June totals rival May in many places, and exceed it in others. But,
regardless of hoping for a great June (remember, we hoped for a great March,
and then April, and then May), we have a lot riding on the next week or so as
we try to end May 31 with some serious drought relief. And a lot of that is
centered on the next 3 days, which would give us a good start on eroding some
of that drought--and the dust and fire danger that comes with it.



Rain? Heck, it's raining right now for crying out loud!



But alas (and a lad, too), that much rainfall won't end drought, so we do need
more rainfall to reinforce these rains. And western OK simply needs a lot more
than what they're showing there. But there are indications the rainy pattern
could continue into next week.



We have to have healthy skepticism, peppered with some hope (mmmmmmm...peppered
hooooooooppppppppe), because--and stop me if I've said this before--it tends to
not rain during droughts.

Now the CPC forecaster's reasoning behind that rather pessimistic summer drought
outlook is as follows:

"Across the areas of drought affecting the Southern Region, drought
persistence is expected across most of central Oklahoma and northwestern
Texas, and also across southeastern Mississippi, eastern Tennessee, and
part of the Louisiana Bayou (basically the northwestern and southeastern
tiers of the Region). Short-term rainfall is expected to approach or
exceed 2 inches in central Oklahoma and portions of eastern Mississippi
and Tennessee, but the potential for above-normal summer temperatures
and enhanced evaporative losses are expected to offset any short-term
improvement in these areas, leaving no net change in the Drought Monitor
by the end of August."

The forecaster considers the confidence level in that outlook as "MODERATE."
I hope they're moderately wrong. But we do see the summer outlook for temps
and precip as hot, with equal chances of above-, below- and near-normal
precip. So with no strong signal for above-normal precip, and with the increased
odds of above normal temperatures, that leads to the possibility of drought
persistence through the next 3 months.



A hotter-than-normal summer in Oklahoma? Unheard of!

Come on rain, we're counting on ya!

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climate Survey
gmcmanus@ou.edu
                

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