Mesonet Ticker for October 7, 2026

                
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October 7, 2026    October 7, 2026    October 7, 2026    October 7, 2026


The gift that keeps on giving




The late Dr. George Taylor, former Oregon State Climatologist, used to sing an
El Nino song at the American Assoc. of State Climatologists' annual meeting. And
if you've never heard climatologists sing, count yourself lucky (and count
yourself twice).

Sing this in your head to the tune of ABBA's "Fernando" (check your Spotify,
kids).

The El Niño Song

Have you heard about El Niño?
Pacific Ocean waters warming up again this year.
Best be ready for El Niño
This winter will be hell because
The weather will be weird
And if you own a house upon the beach at Malibu
You should be scared.
It’s because of El Niño
This winter in New York it will be 70 degrees
Because of El Niño
It will be as cold in Florida as it will be in Maine
And every day the forecast in Los Angeles
Is mudslides mixed with rain.

Chorus:
If you’re wondering why it rains all night,
The weather bites — El Niño
And if you haven’t had a drop of rain
Then you can blame El Niño
Well, the Weather Channel’s so confused
It’s such a mess.
If your basement has to be pumped out,
Then curse and shout, “El Niño!”

[Chorus repeats]

It’s because of El Niño
It’s because of El Niño
It’s because of El Niño

Here ya go, follow along:

https://content.mesonet.org/ticker/archive/20261007/el_nino.wav

Well it's a bunch of climatologists...I warned ya! But this "Super," or very
strong El Nino is apparently the gift that keeps on giving.

Quick primer: El Nino typically brings increased/decreased tropical storm
activity in the Pacific/Atlantic, and vice-versa for La Nina. It's only early
October and we're already up to "Rachel" in named Pacific storms, which is
somewhat close to normal, but Major hurricane counts are well above normal. And
Storm Invest 92 looks to become the 18th named storm of the Pacific season,
Simon, with a 90% chance of development in the next 48 hours.



Will Simon be simple and pull a Polo on us in about 7-8 days? Only Marco knows
for sure, but it is starting to ping the 6-10 day CPC outlooks.



"Ahead of a predicted trough and with enhanced moisture flow from the
tropical Pacific, probabilities for above normal precipitation are
enhanced for the remainder of the CONUS, supported by most of the dynamical
precipitation forecast tools."

And here's the even crazier part...that trough will have already combined with
the remnants of Rachel for enhancement! So maybe a double-whammy?



Well, that's rather amorphous, both graphically and textually. But the presence
of a trough brings up the possibility of another Pacific-aided moisture blast
(and we all know just how painful that can be) into the latter parts of next
week, somewhat similar to what we had with Polo.

BIG DISCLAIMER (worst Rapper name ever!): The particulars of such a possible
interaction are too far out, if and when the remnants of a not-even-formed-yet
storm can move up our way even occurs, and where it goes, and how it interacts
with the trough, and I'm only talking about it because our current weather is
boringly hot and sunny.





Upper-80s and low-90s for highs, upper-60s and low-70s for lows? In mid-October,
after the summer and fall we've already had?

Yuck.

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climate Survey
gmcmanus@ou.edu
                

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