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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... September 29, 2022 September 29, 2022 September 29, 2022 September 29, 2022 Drought roars back https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/DM-change-june28-sept27.png In a shock to no one, drought is once again on the prowl in Oklahoma, emboldened by a largely disappointing secondary fall rainy season thus far. I would have told you this yesterday, but the Drought Monitor is embargoed until its release Thursday morning, AND I was busy trying to tie Roger Maris' American League record for home runs in a single season at 61. Somebody beat me to it so I decided I should just stick to the Ticker (and we all know just how painful that can be). Anyway, as you were saying...no, *I* was saying (that's pretty presumptuous of you), our secondary rainy season in the fall has "fallen" well short of its mark. "Fallen"..."secondary fall rainy season. Get it? I'll wait. Okay, so we look at the September rains thus far and other than a few areas with somewhat close to normal values, it has been a huge disappointment. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/cig.sept29.png And while they include the last couple of days of August, the 30-day rain departure and pct of normal maps give us a good idea of what we're up against here. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/del30day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/pct30day_rain.current.png The statewide average rainfall total of 0.7 inches for Sept. 1-29 place it as the 5th driest September on record for the state dating back to 1895, which is no small feat. -***- Top-5 Driest Septembers 1956 0.25" 1939 0.33" 1948 0.51" 1952 0.68" 2022? 0.70" 1928 0.81" 1910 1.07 2021 1.09" -****- I threw 2021 in there because the current drought has two parts: 1. The long-term drought that started August 2021 but accelerated in Sept. 2021. B. The flash drought that started June 11, 2022. So we're working on two different timescales. And I put a question mark after 2022 in the list because we still have tomorrow to get through in order to stay at 0.7" across the state. I think we're safe, unfortunately. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/2day-rain-forecast.gif In fact, we're probably safe through mid-October'ish, save for the western Panhandle, which could get caught up in some action from the Desert Southwest. Sounds dangerous, especially if from Vegas. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/oct6-12-outlooks.PNG The current Drought Monitor tells the story. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/20220927_ok_trd.png The 17% of D4 (Exceptional drought) is the highest level we've seen since May 2018. And the 64% in at least D3 (Extreme drought) is the highest levels since Feb. 19, 2013. 2013!!! When you're in the same conditions as the depths of 2013, you know you're in bad shape. And it only looks to get worse as we deal with continued above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall, in addition to our transition to the driest part of the year as we get into November through the winter months. And even though we might be looking at temperatures in the mid-80s, that is still 10 degrees above normal as we get into October. That puts additional pressure on our surface and soil moisture supplies due to enhanced evaporation. The lack of clouds doesn't help either, because the sun's unencumbered rays are able to evaporate at max levels. And that's what we've had in September...few clouds, let along rain, and lots and lots of sunshine. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/sept-pct-sunshine.png As we go out into the rest of the year, the odds are tilted towards dryness with our third straight cool season La Nina. We're already in La Nina conditions, but they are expected to continue at least through the early part of 2023. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/figure1.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/oct-dec-outlooks.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/oct-dec-drought-outlook.png When you match the ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) or the cool SST (La Nina) episodes to our historical Drought Monitor depiction, you can see the influence La Nina has on our drought episodes. It's not EVERY La Nina...but the odds do tilt towards dry and warm...and drought. As the old cautionary tale goes, not all La Ninas (or El Ninos) impact us the same way. There are other natural influences, of course. I could name you a handful of other important acronyms for oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections, but ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) is one of the most important. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/SSTs.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220929/OK-usdm-time-series.png At any rate, we'll take some good news anytime. Someday soon, rain will start appearing on that 7-day rainfall map. Then it has to actually happen, of course. Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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