Ticker for December 9, 2022

                
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
December 9, 2022   December 9, 2022   December 9, 2022   December 9, 2022


FANTASYCAST: WHITE CHRISTMAS




Because why not, right? Never mind that:

1) This is pure fantasycast territory, 10-12 days out!
B) This product is both experimental, AND based on model output from yesterday.
3) The storm system being predicted to bring us snow on Christmas week is having
fun off the east coast of Siberia right now.
2*2) The latest model runs have tamed the heavy snows down quite a bit.
V) It would be nice, and Mother Nature has decided we can't have nice things.

But here's the deal...it looks likely that we are gonna have an arctic blast (as
opposed to a SONIC BLAST, butterfinger flavor is best) sometime next week, around
Thursday or so, that's gonna drop us back down into true wintry weather, more
suited to December 1983 than December 2021 (remember...10F above normal, warmest
on record by 5.4F?). And that cold snap is currently looking like it will last
through Christmas week (or be more cold than warm due to several cold fronts)
into the actual Holiday. And the outlooks for that time period do so increased
odds of above normal precipitation, which would presumably be amounts greater
than zero.





So all cautionary language has been dispensed with, but just in case ya ain't
getting it yet, here's some more: THIS "FORECAST" CAN AND MOST DEFINITELY *WILL*
CHANGE.

But also remember this...it could get even worse, right? A change in the forecast
doesn't always mean everything just fizzles. At any rate (bulk rate for the
Ticker), this is just something fun to look for as we go through the next
couple of weeks leading up into Christmas. Remember when I showed you those
White Christmas chances based on climatology?



But I also told you as we got closer to Christmas, the climatology track starts
to diminish and the weather track starts to take over. So as of now, not sure
I'd change that climatology just yet...maybe add a few percentage points in
favor instead of against. All we need is an inch on the ground sometime
Christmas Day.

Before we can get anywhere close to thinking about snow, though, we have rain
tonight into tomorrow, and some heavy rain at that.



And again on Monday/Tuesday.



Generally these days, rain is a good problem to have.

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org