Ticker for November 17, 2022

                
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November 17, 2022  November 17, 2022  November 17, 2022  November 17, 2022


Drought still alive




What, you wanted more cold weather talk? Well here's what you can do with your
cold weather...put on a coat.

AHA! You thought I was gonna say something else, didn't ya? Well, I like my job,
thank you very much.

Okay, yes, still cold, still gonna GET cold later today as the coldest air of the
season moves in and chills us to our coldest weather in the state since March 11.







But then it's gonna get warm! Now we're not talking much-of-October or even much-
of-November warm, but close to 60! WHOO-HOO!!

60 is the new 70.



Hair is the new bald, too, so live with that!

Let's talk drought and outlooks. With 98% of the state still in drought, we do
have to acknowledge that some parts of the state have seen pretty good moisture
over the last 30 days. Even better, these have been successive rainfalls (and
snowfalls), so not just a big rain every 30 days like some folks have seen during
this drought, but weekly moisture.







Still lots to dislike on those maps, especially for the NW third of the state,
but still, those totals down in SE OK are pretty impressive...up in parts
of east central OK as well. But it does look like the bounty is over, at least
for the next week or so, and maybe through the end of November.





Farther out, we don't see a warm signal through winter (BOO), but we also don't
see a wet signal (BOO), so that's why we get the drought outlook through February
for PERSISTENCE through the state where the drought is already in place AND no
development for that small percentage of the state not in drought.





That drier than normal signal showing up for most of the state is a reflection
of La Nina's influence, mostly, as the other tools the CPC forecasters use to
look that far ahead were not as helpful. But keep in mind that we're getting
into the driest part of the year for Oklahoma, so seeing possible drier than
normal weather spells drought persistence if you were a betting person, but
that also doesn't preclude a long-shot winner of some big rains and snows...just
decreases their odds. Most of Oklahoma sees less than 10% of their annual
precipitation total during the winter (December-February) season.



Doesn't mean we won't see a lot of precip this winter, just means we PROBABLY
won't.

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org