Ticker for February 10, 2016

                
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February 10, 2016  February 10, 2016  February 10, 2016  February 10, 2016


Has spring sprung?




Okay, everybody settle down. Before some old lady stands up and screams "I SAY WE
VOTE AGAIN!" just remember we have no choice in what Mother Nature brings. For
instance, it was just 5 short years ago on this date that the Nowata Mesonet site
broke the all-time record low temperature in the state with a mind-numbing (heck,
all body numbing) -31 degrees, and we had wind chills down in the 50-below
range.




Compare that to today when we expect highs in the 70s with fire danger jumping
out of the roof.







I've been asked if we've seen that classic Oklahoma move where we sort of skip
winter and go right into spring...at least the last part of winter, at least.
Well, it's certainly going to get warm and for the most part, stay warm for
the foreseeable future. There will be a few downs amongst all the ups, but
again, we're bullish on spring at this time.

The 7-day has lots of 60s and 70s on it, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks
also look to be dominated by that West Coast upper-level ridge (AKA...the heat
producer!). I guess at that point the ridge is no longer the responsibility
of the West Coast.




If you look at the model output well past that point, you can see the dearth of
winter across most of the continent. The March output looks the same.




The biggest problem we're gonna have, aside from the fire danger today, is
the lack of moisture. We're down more than 50% of normal rainfall, and the
last 30 days have been particularly dry.









So the days without such-and-such rainfall are starting to add up.




Not good news on that front either.






So my wish for spring to have sprung hasn't worked on the moisture side. For
those winter lovers out there, fear not. March can and often gets cold, with
occasional big snows (although mostly in the far NW).



I knew she was going to do that!

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org