Ticker for March 28, 2013

                
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
March 28, 2013     March 28, 2013     March 28, 2013     March 28, 2013


Temperature vs. lack of rain ... who will win?

Well, for at least another week, the cool weather came out on top. I shudder to
think where we'd be at right now if we had this March's dry weather combined with
last March's heat.

(shudder)

Yes, the Ticker has special effects! The statewide average temperature for
March 1-27 was 45.9 degrees, 3.4 degrees below normal. Statewide average high
temperatures have come in at 58.4 degrees, 3.6 degrees below normal. That has
kept the state from blossoming too much, although it is trying. Combine that with
the if-it-ended-today-it-would-be-the 18th driest March on record, dating back to
1895, and you get lots of vegetation keeping its head low for the time being.
Those factors are pulling that soil moisture cushion we were given by the
February rain and snow a little farther down the line.

The latest statistics from the USDA's NASS indicate 49 percent of the state?s
topsoils were rated as either ?adequate? or ?surplus? for moisture, meaning 51
percent were rated as ?short? or ?very short.? Subsoils have not fared quite so
well, given the long-term nature of this drought. The subsoils were rated at 88
percent ?short? or ?very short? while only 12 percent were rated as ?adequate.?
State pasture and range conditions were rated 70 percent ?very poor? or ?poor?,
with only 25 percent rated as ?fair? and 5 percent rated as ?good.? The Oklahoma
Mesonet's soil moisture sensors paint that very picture from the top down.




For reasons such as that, the U.S. Drought Monitor had been showing improvement
through February, but more work remains for drought eradication. Approximately
10 percent of the state is still covered by Exceptional (D4) drought, down from
35 percent three months ago. The entire state has remained in at least Moderate
(D1) drought since July 2012. The Drought Monitor?s intensity scale slides from
moderate-severe-extreme-exceptional, with exceptional being the worst category.



The cool weather has prevented drought from rapidly spreading or intensifying,
but it will warm up eventually. And probably sooner rather than later. Average
high temperatures go from the mid-60s now to about the mid-70s a month from now,
and average lows see a similar rise from the mid-50s to the mid-60s. The sun
will win this battle. Trust me! When it does warm up, we will see an explosion
of growth (thanks to the aforementioned soil moisture reserve).

That reserve is not endless ... it's actually quite precarious and shallow (much
like my ego). That's why the upcoming storm system and those that we hope will
follow are so important. The unsettled weather from this weekend into early
next week still looks to dump a decent amount of rain across portions of the
state.



And it also appears we will see another blast of cold air early next week.



And maybe additional active weather after that?



After next week, it's a race to summer. We have to replenish the lower soil
moisture profiles AND keep demand from plants and the sun/wind satisfied, and
re-fill our reservoirs and farm ponds to suit our other needs. All between now
and mid-June or so. The good news is there are not any large-scale climate
indicators saying that can't or won't happen between now and then. The bad news
is there aren't any indicators tipping the odds in that favor either, or even
closer to normal, for that matter.




The truth of the matter is, if that temperature outlook verifies, we have an
uphill battle. So why not get started this weekend? Let's hope Mother Nature
finishes what she started in February before taking March off.

Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org