Ticker for December 7, 2012

                
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
December 7, 2012   December 7, 2012   December 7, 2012   December 7, 2012


Huh, it got even drier!

Now, you listen to me! I want trading reopened right now. Get those climatologists
back in here! Turn those machines back on!

Sorry Mortimer (obscure "Trading Places" reference), but no can do. The
November data from NCDC finally came out and a few rankings changed. The May-
November period that we're constantly whining about here on the Ticker was not
the second driest on record, it was actually the driest. The statewide average for
May-November in Oklahoma was 12.9 inches according to NCDC, which uses a mixture
of NWS COOP and Mesonet stations for our state's statistics. Second place now
belongs to 1952's May-November average of 13.34 inches.

You've heard us say this before, and the entire Ticker staff has nothing better to
do than repeat itself, but beating records from the 1910s, 1930s or 1950s in
Oklahoma is NOT someplace you want to find yourself.

And oh by the way, Mother Nature is just messing with us now.



And our Canadian friends are still being hosers, predicting less than a 30
percent chance much of western Oklahoma will see even 4-tenths of precipitation
accumulate through Dec. 21.



Take off, eh!!

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A little heat before the chill

Our quest for the warmest year on record remained intact and 2012 still leads
1954 by by two-tenths of a degree through November, 64.9 degrees to 64.7.
That's not the only period that's gotten into the "warmest on record" act. The
last 12, 18 and 24 month periods are also leading the record books (for those
looking for the glass half full, it wasn't the warmest, it was the least cold).



That also gives us a bit of a buffer against 1954. It appears the December
average can be as much as a half of a degree below normal and we'll still own
the record. If it is close, we will have to wait for a few months for the final
decree from NCDC since some of that data on paper forms still trickles in quite
slowly. We obviously have a great headstart through the first six days of the
month. So far, the statewide average temperature for December has been 56.5
degrees. Big whoop, right?

Well, that is 14.6 degrees above normal! The average high has been 69.7 degrees
(16.2 degrees above normal) and the average low 43.2 degrees (12.9 degrees
above normal). We're obviously coming back to earth a bit today with highs in
the 50s and 60s, a mere 5-10 degrees above normal. BRR!! And of course the
cold is still scheduled to hit the fan on Sunday thanks to a brush with arctic
air.





How long that air hangs around is the key, and then any future arctic blasts
(how about Butterfinger this time?). This was produced yesterday by the CPC,
so it might be a bit dated now. The forecasts have been swinging wildly the
last few days.



I also see the AO and NAO starting to trend largely negative over the next 14
days or so. You can sorta see that on these spaghetti plots of the different
model forecasts of those two phenomena. Remember, one way to look at it is a
negative AO (Arctic Oscillation) can mean the arctic air is available, the
negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) can mean the pathway for the arctic
air to plunge into the U.S. is open. I would not be shocked to see another
chiller in a week or two. Depends on how far east it can slide. That's certainly
not a done deal. Predicting cold air during the warmest year on record is sort
of like predicting rain in a drought. Lotsa luck!




Now, anybody have the latest info on pork belly prices?

Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org