Go back to the Ticker Home Page!

. . . Other Tickers . . .
Previous Ticker: December 7, 2015	Following Ticker: December 10, 2015
. . . Tell Others . . .
Share     Tweet
. . . Ticker for December 9, 2015 . . .
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... December 9, 2015 December 9, 2015 December 9, 2015 December 9, 2015 Wait, what's going to happen this weekend? http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151209/clint.jpg Remember this graphic from not too long ago? http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151123/forecasting-chaos.png Well from what I can tell, that's the type of fun the local forecasters are having with this system headed towards the Plains this weekend. Here is the overall setup, with thanks to our friends in the Shreveport NWS office. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151209/weekend-storm-system.jpg So it looks to me like the forecasters in Amarillo (covering the OK Panhandle) are more worried about some frozen stuff, while Norman and Tulsa, along with Shreveport, are talking possible severe (but not TOO severe) weather. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151209/nws-amarillo.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151209/nws-norman.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151209/nws-tulsa.png I've read the latest forecast discussions from all the local NWS offices, and what sticks out to me is the difficulty in getting a good consensus forecast from all the model output. Pay special attention to Amarillo's! Here are some quotes, fer instance: NWS-Tulsa -- "Extended models continue to struggle with the evolution of the next upper wave ejecting out of the southwestern states for this weekend." NWS-Norman -- "...SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT AT THIS TIME...ACCUMULATION OF SNOW APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY." NWS-Amarillo -- "MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT POWERFUL (storm system) TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS...SUGGESTS ONLY MINIMAL (moisture potential) AND POTENTIAL FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY TO THE ECMWF (European model) WHICH CUTS OFF AN IMPRESSIVE LOW AND TRACKS IT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EFFECTIVELY BURYING THE PANHANDLE IN SNOW (WITH POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS)." So a dusting of snow to a blizzard? Not even the BRAUM'S METER is gonna try and handle that one. In essence, the forecast models aren't handling this system very well and so the forecasters are keeping options open to some degree. What we DO KNOW is that it's going to be warm through Friday. In fact, even today we will get close to some record high temperatures. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151209/todays-forecast-highs.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151209/todays-record-highs.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151209/fridays-forecast-highs.png And it doesn't appear like this is going to be a prolonged cool down, as highs next week go right back to seasonable or above. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151209/nws-norman-7day-planner.jpg Farther out than that...that's territory for the more adventurous than I. I've seen lots of talk of really cold air building for latter parts of the month. There are hints of some below normal temps for later next week, but weeks 3 and 4 still look much above average. At least according to this particular forecast model. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151209/week1-week2-outlooks.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151209/week3-week4-outlooks.gif So a winter wonderland for Christmas, or Santa making his own gravy in that red felt suit? Your model is as good as mine. I did get one thing right, however. Just as I thought, most of that snow that fell the previous few weeks be gone! http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151209/us-snow-depth.jpg Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================