MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... November 25, 2015 November 25, 2015 November 25, 2015 November 25, 2015
Eh, who needs power anyway?
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151125/ice.storm.jpg
All right stop, collaborate and listen (to the Norman NWS office as they explain a particular worry for the next few days)!
"OUR WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE EARLIER ISSUANCE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TO CAUSE ICE ACCUMULATION IN THAT AREA...BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS FAIRLY LIKELY AT THIS POINT THAT SOME PARTS OF THE WATCH WILL HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO AN ICE STORM WARNING ONCE THERE IS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO DO SO."
ARGH! "Ice storm warning," the most dreaded words in Oklahoma weather next to "tornado warning," I reckon. Nothing can cause more havoc and chaos, it seems. Check out these 3-day ice accumulation PROBABILITY maps from the WPC for both a quarter-inch and a half-inch.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151125/72hr-ice.accum.prob.quarter-inch.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151125/72hr-ice.accum.prob.half-inch.png
Yikes! Up to a 40% chance to see about a half-inch of ice across west central OK, and possibly a 70% chance to see up to a quarter-inch. This is still fluid (and I hope it stays that way, pardon the pun), but aye, there's the rub. What's the atmospheric setup going to be over the next three days as this gargantuan, wet storm system passes over us? In particular, what's the vertical temperature profile going to be, which is the key to determining what type of precipitation, wintry or not, that you're going to get?
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20131125/winter-precip-types.png
As of now, there is a winter storm watch for the NW third of the state and a flash flood watch for the rest of the state (sans McCurtain County for now, which will change soon I'm sure. There is just way too much water for this storm to work with for this late in November.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151125/7day-precip-forecast.gif
All thanks to a very warm Gulf of Mexico bringing moisture north on those strong southerly winds you're feeling outside right now
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151125/current.gustarrows.gif
and stupid Hurricane Sandra in the Pacific, who's going to provide a nice fetch of upper-level moisture from the other side of the Divide.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151125/sandra.gif
That gives us all of the above. An easier way to have written this Ticker would have been to just show a few graphics from our local NWS offices:
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151125/nws-amarillo-ice.snow.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151125/nws-norman-ice.jpg
Given the recent developments, I'm afraid we're going to have to upgrade the EMERGENCY BREAD AND MILK DEF-BRAUMS LEVEL to LEVEL ONE across west central through north central Oklahoma.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151125/DEF-BRAUMS-MAP.png
For the REAL info, however, you know the drill. Stay tuned to your local NWS office and media outlets for the latest weather, because this one is definitely going to be one of those hour-to-hour deals. For your ease, the Mesonet can show you all the advisories and forecast graphics from the NWS in two very easy to navigate pages.
http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/forecast/local_and_regional http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/category/advisories
And there ain't no better place to keep track of that freezing line than right here on our own gem of a network, the Oklahoma Mesonet itself!
http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/air_temperature/air_temperature
Beware that 32 degrees line. It's the key.
Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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