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. . . Ticker for August 18, 2022 . . .
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... August 18, 2022 August 18, 2022 August 18, 2022 August 18, 2022 Cool Hand Drought https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/june11-aug18-rain-totals.png I can't eat 50 eggs. Not that that is important, I just thought I'd get it out there to begin with. I love transparency. And apparently so does my scalp. AND if you haven't seen "Cool Hand Luke" at least 38 times, "pity" is not a strong enough word. At any rate, the area highlighted above is indicative of the parts of Oklahoma that are woefully behind on rainfall since this flash drought began back on June 11. There are definitely places outside of that black blob I drew that are also woefully--even pitifully--behind ("pitifully behind" was my nickname in college), but that is the larger-scale area that has missed out. We can look back at the 60-day rainfall departures to get a more clear picture on the damage done. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/del60day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/pct60day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/60day-rain-stats.png And that is the basis for most of the drought coverage we see today on the Drought Monitor map. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/20220816_ok_trd.png HOWEVER, let's not forget that we're coming up on about a year from when the longer-term drought really started ramping up. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/365day-rain-totals.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/del365day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/pct365day_rain.current.png We have some good news and bad news from our prognosticating friends. And enemies. NEVER borrow money from the Climate Prediction Center. If you don't pay it back, they send bad outlooks your way. Luckily, in this case, we have some good outlooks to work with as we go out over the next few months. For September, at least, we do see increased odds of above normal temperatures across western OK, but for the rest of the state, and ALL of the state for the precipitation outlook, we see equal chances of above-, below-, and near- normal temp and precip. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/september-outlooks.png But when we get out into the seasonal outlook, good for today through the end of November, it gets a bit more dicey. Here we can see increased odds of above normal temps and below normal precip for the entire state, but those odds are increased in the Panhandle for both. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/sept-nov-outlooks.png So the drought outlook for today through the end of November was something of a compromise between the September vs. the September-November outlooks. Here we can see drought improvement across the entire state with a few areas of drought removal being considered "likely," but the drought remains in a less severe form. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/sept-nov-drought-outlook.png I believe this is a nod towards the heavy rains expected in the next week, in addition to more normal precip totals through September, vs. that long-term dryness that will keep the drought around in some form through the fall. This here is straight from the horse's mouth (the horse in this case being the CPC forecaster that produced the maps): "Therefore, based on the widespread wetness favored in the short and medium range, widespread drought reduction is favored across Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah and Colorado, and eastward across the entire Southern Region. Despite the widespread drought conditions currently in place, localized flooding may be possible in areas that receive the heaviest rainfall." Aha! So I was write (not so write in my spelling, right?)! So then it is imperative (English to Okie translation: "pretty darned important") that the wet times being forecast over the next two weeks actually come true. I've been pretty optimistic in those hopes, mainly because I'm tired of no hope! I've also been pretty honest in worrying about the dreaded "southern shift" we see sometimes in these 7-day rainfall forecasts. The storm systems (thee are multiples) responsible as we go out 5-7 days are often not even over land yet, being over the ocean where the atmosphere is not as sampled as good by instruments. So the closer we get, the better the forecasts. Remember this graphic? https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151123/forecasting-chaos.png That gives a pretty good explanation why. Well, we ARE seeing something of a southern shift. The heaviest rains are now shifted down into Texas. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/7day-rain-forecast.gif Don't fret just yet! No, that's not the beginning of a haiku, just wanted you to notice that most of Oklahoma is still forecast to get a good 3-5 inches over the next 7 days. Barring any further southern shift. And the outlooks for that last week of August are still looking on the mild and wet side. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220818/aug25-31-outlooks.png We have 59% of the state currently in at least Extreme (D3) drought, a level we haven't seen in the state since May 20, 2014. If we don't want to keep traveling backwards into the depths of that 2011-12 drought period, we need the next 2 weeks worth of moisture forecasts to come true. Hmmmm, maybe if I eat 50 eggs... Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================