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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... August 9, 2018 August 9, 2018 August 9, 2018 August 9, 2018 Drought Impossible Mother Nature's mission, should she choose to accept it, is to relieve the EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT introduced this week across much of far SW OK. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180809/20180807_OK_trd.png The D4 drought intensity showing up this week is the first substantial amount in the state since mid-June. Now it's only a tiny amount, but it's concentrated in one area, signalling misery for ag producers in that corner. Notice we also have a new area of Extreme (D3) drought in the Osage/Pawnee/Noble county area, with more tales of woe coming from that region. So you have extreme/exceptional drought, it's August, you think you're hosed by the Syndicate...errrr, I mean "summer," correct? Well no! In this case, we're headed towards another August 2017 it would appear, with lost of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. In fact, thanks to a cut-off upper- level low pressure system likely to form in the TX Panhandle, relief for SW OK is possible as early as THIS WEEKEND. A cut-off low is often known as "meteorologist's woe" since it's not being steered by any sort of atmospheric flow. So as it meanders around, it can often move erratically. But as it bounces slowly around like a drunken junebug, it will be able to tap into deep, Gulf moisture and pump it up over Oklahoma. All you need are a few storm triggers and vwalla (I can't spell voilą), you have heavy rains, clouds and very non-August temperatures. So, yes, Mission POSSIBLE! http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180809/drought-relief-possible.png Wait wait wait, remember, this is a forecast, and there is a reason a cut-off low is a meteorologist's woe. But the odds are pretty good we'll see significant rains in the state over the weekend into early next week. Our NWS friends think so. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180809/nws-norman-7day-forecast.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180809/nws-amarillo-panhandle-rain.png The temperature forecasts think so. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180809/sunday-forecast-highs.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180809/monday-forecast-highs.png And the outlooks think it'll continue even after early next week. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180809/aug16-22-temp-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180809/aug16-22-precip-outlook.gif It's gonna take a bit of work. SW OK and other parts of the state have a long way to go in 2018 to catch up to normal. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180809/year-to-date-rain.totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180809/ytd-rain-departures.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180809/ytd-rain-pct-normal.png Probably won't get there with these rains. That's okay, I've been trying to reach normal for years and I'm still not there. But, these rains are a start. For SW Oklahoma, not me. That's definitely Mission IMPOSSIBLE. Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================