MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... July 18, 2022 July 18, 2022 July 18, 2022 July 18, 2022
How high?
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/july23-27-temp-outlook.png
Speaking of cold fronts, enjoy that one today as it should drop most of the state into the (checks notes) high 90s and low 100s! WOW! What a gift, right? And as with the past cold fronts, only those across the northern half of the state see any sort of relatively milder air as the southern counties continue to bake. But maybe (and that's a big maybe, and even bigger but...badum dum!) it will keep us all below record levels for today.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/todays-forecast-highs.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/july18-high.temp-records.png
That certainly isn't the case over the last few days as somebody in the state has seen a record high daily temperature record.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/saturdays-highs.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/july16-high.temp-records.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/yesterdays-highs.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/july17-high.temp-records.png So a cooler (go ahead, give us a good "GUFFAW") day today will allow all eyes to focus on tomorrow and Wednesday, but tomorrow in particular as we could see the highest temps in the state since 2011 and 2012. Highs across western Oklahoma will be pushing that 115 barrier, which would put it up there with the highest temperatures ever recorded by the Mesonet. And Wednesday is no slouch either, but Tuesday in particular looks brutal
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/tues-forecast-highs.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/wed-forecast-highs.png
Those ridiculous temps tomorrow have earned almost the entire state an "excessive heat warning" for heat index values up also in the 110-115 range.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/latest.oklahoma.heat.gif
As for actual air temperature values we're looking at eclipsing, keep these readings in mind:
Last 113: July 14, 2020 at Hollis Mesonet Last 114: Aug. 4, 2012 at Ralston NWS COOP Last 115: Aug. 1, 2012 at Kingfisher Mesonet Last 116: July 6, 1996 at Ponca City Airport Last 117: July 3, 1980 at Mangum NWS COOP Last 118: July 18, 1954 at Jay NWS COOP Last 119: July 19, 1936 at Cloud Chief NWS COOP Last 120: Aug. 12, 1936 at Altus NWS COOP Last 121: NOT IN OK RECORDED DATA
Okay, so do we REALLY need to worry about those last few? Probably not. But we could definitely see that 114 or 115 mark threatened. And the days where we get up in that range are beyond rare. We've seen 114 degrees or higher on 122 days since the mid-1890s...that's 122 days out of the last 692,000 or so. And only 29 days since 1987.
So if you had a dollar for every day since 1896 without a reading of 114 degrees or higher, you'd have just about $692,000. Adjusting for inflation that's about ONE HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS (do Dr. Evil smirk with pinky to mouth)! Well, maybe not that much, but I'm not doing the math.
As for rain? Well, the only marks threatened there are the dry ones, as we continue with our driest running June 11-forward period in the last 100 years. I hope I said that correctly. Basically, starting with June 11 as we add each day, THAT new period is the driest such period in the last 100 years...at least since 1921.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/june11-july18-stats.png
That doesn't look to get interrupted anytime soon with a pretty dismal rain forecast over the next week. And probably after that.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/7day-rain-forecast.gif
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220718/july23-27-precip-outlook.png
It's all up to the "ARCH-DEMON DEATH RIDGE OF 2022" now (trademark pending on that name). As it shifts away from us and back over us, it might allow a few showers here and there, and a stray "cold" front or two. But don't get too many hopes up just yet for short-term relief, but get tons of hope up for the fall.
It WILL eventually get here.
Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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