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October 20, 2022 October 20, 2022 October 20, 2022 October 20, 2022
Octvember
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221020/nov-jan-outlooks.png
What? ANOTHER "day off" Ticker? Well what was I supposed to do? The weather don't
stop for me...can't stop, won't stop, Rocafella Records! C'mon, work with me, I
haven't had my Sanka yet.
Those outlooks are sorta classical La Nina'ish with the Southern Tier of the U.S.
hampered by warm, dry weather, and that would allow the drought that currently
covers our state to persist through the end of the year. Remember, these outlooks
are simply showing how CPC would tilt the odds towards these outcomes...they
ain't written in stone, nor is our future weather. La Nina certainly helps tilt
the odds in their favor, however, towards a droughty cool season.
The outlooks for November look about the same.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221020/nov-outlooks.png
Drought is certainly in place to persist, heading into the driest part of the
year.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221020/20221018_ok_trd.png
There is hope in the short term...long term as well, but the storm system for
next week is more immediate. Again, not a drought-buster, but maybe a drought
delayer (it still has to happen...remember my motto: "Hair is for losers"...
whoops, wrong one...this one: "I'll believe it when I see it.").
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20221020/7day-rain-forecast.gif
The outlooks can't account for extreme events. Suppose the remnants of a
hurricane move over us? Suppose there is one big cutoff low that sits over
us and rains for 4 days straight?
Suppose they're just flat out wrong? That happens a lot. So yes, there is always
hope.
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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