MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... September 22, 2021 September 22, 2021 September 22, 2021 September 22, 2021
PICK A LANE!
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210922/todays-lows.png
Okay, a bit of hyperbole there...how about late fall? Late October/early November? What do you expect when we spot the first 30s in the state since last May? May 13, to be exact, when it got down to 36 in Eva, as well as some other 30s across northern OK. Our first fall freeze is POSSIBLY right around the corner, but as it turns out, not quite the next corner, or possibly even the next one. After our brief foray into fall, we're right back to summer in a couple of days with upper 80s and 90s forecast for highs.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210922/friday-forecast-highs.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210922/saturday-forecast-highs.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210922/sunday-forecast-highs.png
And that type of weather could continue well into October, it appears, although even with this type of outlook you can't discount a stray front and cool down here or there. *I* could discount it, but I'm too lazy.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210922/sept29-oct5-temp-outlook.gif
Oh, and forget the rain, too. That's the real sad part of our weather pattern.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210922/7day-rain-forecast.gif
We've updated the potential first-freeze-of-fall maps with the newest normals from NCEI. These run from 1991-2020, so they're fresh with the latest climate happenings around the Southern Plains. We've plotted the dates for the earliest 10%, the median date (50%), and the latest 10%. In other words, the dates on the earliest 10% map indicate a 10% chance of a freeze happening on or BEFORE that date (or a 90% chance the first freeze would occur AFTER that date). The median date is obviously a 50% chance the first freeze would occur on or either before or after that date, and then the latest 10% shows the date on which you could expect a 10% chance that first freeze would occur on or AFTER the date displayed (or 90% chance on or BEFORE).
GASP GASP!
I hope I explained that correctly. I tried to think but nothing happened, so I'll just throw caution to the wind and go for it. Here are the maps.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210922/earlist.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210922/median.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20210922/latest.png
Obviously those dates are looking from a distance. When you get closer, like for the earliest 10% maps, maybe we can start to push those dates forward a bit given the current and expected weather pattern? In other words, while these maps represent the percentages based on the normals, we have to start to take day-to-day weather into account as we approach the cool season. So Boise City has a 10% chance of a freeze by October 4, but maybe a bit later this year? At any rate, we're still a few weeks away for most of the state to see those freeze chances start to go up, but nothing would shock us this year.
Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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