Ticker for January 6, 2023

                
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January 6, 2023    January 6, 2023    January 6, 2023    January 6, 2023


Sis Boom Boo




My forecasting prowess is legendary, much like my full head of lustrous hair and
amazing ability to sleep more than 4 hours straight each night. But let's be real,
even my puny prognosticational (work with me) efforts would think that with all
the talk of bomb cyclones, atmospheric rivers, historic rain and snow totals, that
this might eventually mean big things for Oklahoma and its drought. But I'm still
not seeing any bigtime changes in our weather for the next 7-10 days.The upper-
level storms that move our way are moving just too fast with not enough return
moisture and a bit too far east.

So far, at least. We know from experience that the models taketh away, but
eventually giveth. Remember the models don't control our weather (that's just
what we want people to think!), but they're really our only look into the future
weather, warts included. Maybe, just maybe, a bit of rain early next week? Then
maybe, and only maybe, a bit more mid-week next week?



For bigtime changes, you have to go way out 10-11 days to see a fairly robust
system in our area, but not with a big rush of arctic air...sorry snowers. But I
should have conditioned you pretty well now on the disappointment that can
follow from fantasy-casting, but also that not only can things fizzle, but
also become bigger! My ego notwithstanding. With not much sign of any big
arctic air outbreaks down into the Southern Plains, the most we can hope for
is a spring-like system with some big rainers.



So we stick with 80% of our state in drought. Might not be the drought with
completely dry soils and dying vegetation right now...impacts tend to be masked
in the winter with soil moisture replenishment in the upper layers. And your
grass is dormant anyway, so who would know? Well, the lower soil layers know,
as do the lakes and farm ponds. Our ecosystem has something of a drought-memory,
and it waits for warmer, windier and sunnier weather to let us know it's still
desperately dry. Fire danger comes first, but that's more of a day-to-day
weather thing in the cool season, but the prime-time for fire danger is fast
approaching.



So look to the lakes if you think that drought is gone (for those of you
across central and eastern Oklahoma. People out in western Oklahoma need no
such reminders.



Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org