Ticker for January 8, 2020

                
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January 8, 2020    January 8, 2020    January 8, 2020    January 8, 2020


Crankbait




Remember that movie "Crank" with Jason Statham gets injected with a poison that
will kill him if his heart rate drops below freakout level? Well, climatologists
are just the opposite of that, the boring sort that we are, so when we see
forecast model output like the European model above, we almost...ALMOST...wake up
enough to cause ourselves trouble. And even though I'm a confirmed cold-hater,
this winter with all its 50s and 60s and lack of snow has been BORING. So yeah,
that forecast does get the blood pumping. But alas, it's just one forecast model
run from one of many, trying to prognosticate a storm system that's still over
the ocean, that still has to cross the Rockies, that has uncertain timing between
all the ingredients needed for snow, etc. etc.

And here's the American forecast model's counter punch.



And then there are other forecast models, blends of models, and so forth that I'm
not privy to. But, despite all of that, we still have weather going on TODAY, and
that weather is pointing towards wildfire. Dangerous conditions with lots of
wind later today gusting from 40-50 mph, low relative humidity, temps in the
60s and lots of dry fuel. Not really anything to do with drought conditions,
primarily; this time of year with everything dead or dormant, you just need
all of the above. And a spark, of course: a chain dragging a road, pump battery
sparking, or somebody throwing a cigarette butt out the window. A Red Flag
fire warning has been issued for much of the NW half of the state by the
NWS, signalling those areas where the most danger lies. Really all the state
should be on the lookout, however.









So I think it's best to get through today's weather, then we can worry about
this weekend. Because this seasonal snow accumulation map is downright BORING!



Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org