Ticker for December 11, 2019

                
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December 11, 2019  December 11, 2019  December 11, 2019  December 11, 2019


Killjoy




We're not poo-pooing the snow just yet. That's a dog's job. But we are saying that
while exciting -- and frankly we need some weather excitement right about now --
we still have a long ways to go on this particular forecast; 4-5 days to be
inexactly exact. So no Braum's DEF-CON map just yet, but a primer on "why the
heck can't they tell me if it's going to snow on Monday yet?"

Well, here's the deal. Remember that storm system off the west coast is still not
even over land yet. The cat at the table should have told ya. So it has yet to
be sampled by our dense weather observation networks. The computer models
generating this forecast storm can and probably will change some important
factors as the week goes on. As the models start to come into agreement with
their forecasts, we'll get a much better sense of what to expect. Remember the
old chaos effect on the computer models.



Not only is there a problem with asking the computer forecast models to be that
accurate this far out (both distance and time), but the ingredients that are
needed to come together somewhat perfectly to generate snow vs. sleet vs.
freezing rain vs. just a plain old cold rain are pretty unforgiving.



Given all those precautions, the local NWS offices are correctly being cautious
about the POSSIBLE winter weather impacts early next week.





But there are some things the confidence is a bit higher for, like it will most
likely get cold again this weekend (which is a weird thing to say since it's
cold RIGHT NOW!).



Other than that, borrrrrrriiiinnnngggg! Oh, and for those looking for a white
Christmas? It can still change, but the forecast for now ain't looking good.



Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org