Ticker for September 18, 2019

                
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September 18, 2019 September 18, 2019 September 18, 2019 September 18, 2019


It's raining shoes




Just when you think you have it all figured out (no, not the meme...the weather),
Mother Nature goes and throws her favorite fall curveball: the tropical system.
This one sorta-but-not-really snuck up on us. At this time yesterday it didn't
really appear like it was going to develop all the way into a full tropical
storm, but darned if it didn't. Now it's trudging its way to the north, directly
at Oklahoma. It's going to dump from 6-12 inches down there in east Texas, but
eastern Oklahoma could get a good dose of rain as well. Maybe 2-3 inches...more
in localized areas. Not enough to even generate a flash flood watch in our area.
Yet, at least.







The restovus have to wait for the upper air pattern to change to SW flow and
provide lift for storms to form. Let's say Thursday-ish, and the chances will
remain elevated through the weekend. And anytime we have rain (well, most of the
time), that means a bit cooler weather. Probably still steamy, though, so that
might be a wash.



Still no sign of extended fall weather. That's not to say a cool front won't
slip down and give us some glimpses next week, but the longer-range outlook
is still for above normal temperatures.



At this point, I'm afraid if we're even a few degrees above seasonal norms,
we're going to have to call that autumn. We're *mostly* done with triple-digits
this year, and it looks like it came out pretty close to normal. Remember,
however, that most of this came in the latter half of summer, so that one-half
of the season was fairly nasty (and we don't have heat indices figured in here,
and those were particularly nasty this summer).





"Particularly nasty." What do you say we make that a regular forecast term
here in Oklahoma?

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org