Ticker for August 15, 2019

                
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August 15, 2019    August 15, 2019    August 15, 2019    August 15, 2019


More rain, more drought?




One (or two) would think that with the bit of rain we received over the last
week, we would have seen a big reduction in drought. Not so fast, my friends!
When we're dealing with a flash drought scenario, there's a bit of momentum in
the drying process that starts to run out of control eventually. Sort of a
feedback mechanism. More heat begets more drying begets more drought begets more
heat begets more drying begets more drought. So we get a solid dose of rain, and
we do see improvements in some of the areas with the heaviest rain. Elsewhere,
we see degradation due to the intense heat we've been suffering, and just not
enough rainfall to make up for the deficits. Here you can see the current map
(NOT in the frying pan) and the change since last week.





The last 30 days are the key, but the deficits are starting to bulge even over the
last 60 days. And the rains didn't really impact those deficits too much.













With coverage (D1-D4) at 23.63%, we haven't seen this much drought extent since
Sept. 4, 2018. And frankly (or Garyly, I guess...don't know who Frank is) this
is but a minor blip on the drought radar over the last 10 years. Heck, it's
really just a blip over the last couple of years.



The trick is to keep it a blip instead of a bomb. That's Mother Nature's job.
Prospects for curtailing the current dry spell don't look great as of now. We
will continue to see rain chances around the periphery of the heat dome, and
maybe a few incursions farther into the state. But nothing major on the horizon
except lots of heat.







Going out even further, CPC shows increased odds for above normal temperature
for the September and September-November periods, with no clear signal for
precip...equal chances of above-, below-, and near-normal conditions over
Oklahoma.









Given those outlooks, the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook for now through Nov. 30
shows the drought areas in Oklahoma persisting through that time frame, but
at least no new development.



Here is CPC's reasoning. Might have showed some development surrounding the
current drought area, but the reduction in ET could help diminish the threat.

"Moderate and severe drought (D1 and D2, respectively) expanded in
coverage across portions of Texas and Oklahoma this week. This is not
surprising, since Departure from Normal Precipitation (DNP) during
the past 60-days ranged from 2-4 inches below normal, with localized
4-6 inch deficits in the Lawton/Wichita Falls area. Though persistent
heat in this region has taken its toll on crops and depleted topsoil
moisture, the deeper subsoil moisture profile is still adequate. For
the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast periods, below to near normal
precipitation, and above normal temperatures, are predicted. For the
monthly and seasonal periods, EC is favored for most of the
precipitation outlook. During the autumn season, a climatological
reduction in both temperature and evapotranspiration make for a much
more forgiving environment for crops and soil moisture, even though
SON tends to be a somewhat drier time of year. Considering these
factors, the current drought areas in the South are forecast to
persist, with an area of drought development expected over southern
Texas. However, an important wild card for Texas in particular is the
potential for impacts from tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf of
Mexico, especially during September and October."

Oklahoma can hope for some tropical influence as well. For those areas that need
it, of course. Northeastern Oklahoma doesn't want it!

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org