Ticker for August 9, 2018

                
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August 9, 2018     August 9, 2018     August 9, 2018     August 9, 2018


Drought Impossible


Mother Nature's mission, should she choose to accept it, is to relieve the
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT introduced this week across much of far SW OK.



The D4 drought intensity showing up this week is the first substantial amount in
the state since mid-June. Now it's only a tiny amount, but it's concentrated in
one area, signalling misery for ag producers in that corner. Notice we also have
a new area of Extreme (D3) drought in the Osage/Pawnee/Noble county area, with
more tales of woe coming from that region.

So you have extreme/exceptional drought, it's August, you think you're hosed
by the Syndicate...errrr, I mean "summer," correct? Well no! In this case, we're
headed towards another August 2017 it would appear, with lost of below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation. In fact, thanks to a cut-off upper-
level low pressure system likely to form in the TX Panhandle, relief for SW OK
is possible as early as THIS WEEKEND. A cut-off low is often known as
"meteorologist's woe" since it's not being steered by any sort of atmospheric
flow. So as it meanders around, it can often move erratically. But as it bounces
slowly around like a drunken junebug, it will be able to tap into deep, Gulf
moisture and pump it up over Oklahoma. All you need are a few storm triggers and
vwalla (I can't spell voilà), you have heavy rains, clouds and very non-August
temperatures.

So, yes, Mission POSSIBLE!



Wait wait wait, remember, this is a forecast, and there is a reason a cut-off
low is a meteorologist's woe. But the odds are pretty good we'll see significant
rains in the state over the weekend into early next week. Our NWS friends think
so.





The temperature forecasts think so.





And the outlooks think it'll continue even after early next week.





It's gonna take a bit of work. SW OK and other parts of the state have a long
way to go in 2018 to catch up to normal.







Probably won't get there with these rains. That's okay, I've been trying to
reach normal for years and I'm still not there. But, these rains are a start.

For SW Oklahoma, not me. That's definitely Mission IMPOSSIBLE.

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org