Ticker for June 14, 2018

                
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June 14, 2018      June 14, 2018      June 14, 2018      June 14, 2018


Panhandle Monsoon




Do you have lakefront property in the Oklahoma Panhandle? That's odd, since there
aren't any lakes (unless you're counting Lake Optima, the lake that never was).
Well, your chances are increasing that you'll at least have some pretty
significant mud puddles to play in come next week, thanks to a combination of
factors coming together. The 7-day rainfall forecast is starting to paint the
town red out that way.



It's even gotten the attention of the big boys at CPC.



In layman's terms, the basic scenario is the remnants of tropical storm Bud
coming up over the eastern Intermountain West (hey, I tried), a tropical wave
down off the Yucatan moving slowly to the west-northwest, and a ridge of high
pressure sitting over the southeast. So Bud will bring mid- to upper-level
moisture to the region, and more importantly, a trigger for showers and storms.
And the tropical wave and the western edge of the high pressure ridge will act
to funnel copious amounts of low-level moisture into the High Plains (and the
rest of the state). All that comes together to POSSIBLY produce a heavy rain
event in the High Plains, including the Panhandle of Oklahoma.

I probably didn't do that explanation justice, so here's a bit of expertise by
somebody more, uh, expert that me.

NWS-Norman:

Mid and upper level tropical moisture from TS Bud is expected to
move into parts of the southwest U.S. and could eventually move into
portions of the Plains this weekend into next week. Meanwhile, a
disturbance near the Yucatan is expected to move across the Gulf of
Mexico and then northward across portions of Texas bringing lower
level tropical moisture to the region. With the tropical moisture in
place over the area, a wet weather pattern is expected next week.
The moist airmass along with heating, the disturbance from the Gulf
that could linger over the region for awhile, and any other
disturbances affecting the region could lead to showers/storms
across parts of the area a number of days next week. Heavy rain will
be the primary concern next week.

And here's a bit of text from the Amarillo NWS office:

Depending on how this trends with future model
runs, we could see multiple days of moderate to heavy rain with
storms. Models suggest that we could be in a sweet spot as far as
moisture flow goes. A stalling large scale trough over Nevada, in
conjunction with the ridge of high pressure centered over the
eastern Arkansas area, continues to favor moisture from the Gulf
as well as some of the eastern Pacific moisture. Looking out to
Wednesday PWAT values could be reaching close to 2.00".

PWAT is Precipitable Water...basically how much water is available in a column
of air above a point. It's a bit complicated, but when you get to 2 inches or
above, that indicates very high moisture content. For this time of year for
that part of the Plains, it's very close to the 99th percentile, if not higher.
In short, there could be a LOT of water available to condensate and fall as
rain.

Interestingly enough, PWAT is also the sound an ice cream cone makes when it
falls onto a hot sidewalk in the summer.

And just in time too, right, since the drought is still alive and kicking out
that way. Truth be told, looking at the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map, we
need some of that moisture to fall across eastern Oklahoma, opposite of what
we've wished for earlier this year.



Southeastern Oklahoma now has a pretty big dollop of moderate drought painted
across it, and much of the eastern half now has at least "abnormally dry"
conditions. The "exceptional drought" has shrunk even more in the northwest.
I'll be transparent and say I objected to that change, taking the D4 drought
from Dewey County in the aftermath of the Rhea Fire, as well as northern Blaine
County. From my perspective, that area has been in D4 for 3 months, and little
rain has fallen since then, especially over the bulk of the rainy season the
last 60 days.







The national author didn't quite find enough evidence in the actual drought
indices, so the reduction was made in that area. We were drawn by the impacts
the area continues to suffer.

The good news is this is possibly a moot point, given the chances for rain
coming next week. Remember, however, that we're in a very weak wind environment,
so these things can wobble back and forth pretty significantly. If Bud goes
100 miles one way or another, that could change things accordingly.

But for now, Oklahoma Panhandle...this Bud's for you.

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org