Ticker for May 9, 2017

                
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May 9, 2017        May 9, 2017        May 9, 2017        May 9, 2017


Wishful thinking?




You Scholastic Rock fans may know that fella is for the other team, but as a
denizen of Moore, so am I (as I am sure many of you are). I don't need any EF-0
tornadoes do-si-do'ing through my neighborhood, let alone another EF-5. So when I
hear folks say "this is not the year for tornadoes," I have to say...NOT SO FAST!

First off, we're sorta-kinda in the average range for tornadoes thus far with a
2017 total of 12 according to the tornado database of the Norman NWS office. At
least that's the PRELIMINARY total through April. That number could go up if there
are more possible tornado reports to investigate.

http://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-ok-monthlyannual

And here's their list of 2017 tornadoes that have been confirmed.



The 1950-2016 average for the Jan-Apr period is around 17. So just a tad below
average, preliminarily speaking. The kicker is we are now nine days through May,
so the 22.7 tornadoes we average during May increases the deficit, but that's
countered by having another 20+ days left in the month.

Everybody completely confused yet? Well, let's not confuse this. The fact we
haven't seen a garish tornado total thus far is not reason to let your
preparedness-guard down. Quite the contrary. May tornadoes tend to come in
bunches, and we have bunches of days left for tornadoes to occur. Now this
cautionary tale should really hold year round for Oklahomans, but we all know
May is the big bad antagonist in this movie.

Anyway, back to the point. A somewhat sluggish Jan-Apr tornado period is not a
good predictor of the remainder of "tornado season." For instance, 2015 had seen
12 tornadoes through April as well, and by the time May was finished, the
count had risen to 95 (on its way to 111)! Nobody tends to remember 2015 as a
big tornado year because the three major metropolitan areas (OKC, Tulsa and
Buffalo) were not significantly impacted. But if YOU were in the path of even
one of those weak twisters, YOU WERE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED!

http://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-ok-2015

Another cautionary tale. In 2010 there were THREE confirmed tornadoes between
Jan-Apr, but the year's total finished at 103.

http://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-ok-2010

There are definitely some years that are just downright nasty, like 2011 with
its 50 April tornadoes and 46 in May, on its way to a total of 119 (11 November
tornadoes?? Ridiculous!). And easy years like 2014, which ended with a record
low total of 16. And there are the tricky ones too, like 2012 with its 54 April
tornadoes (a record) but only three during May.

What's the message in this madness? Well, pretty simple. Don't let your guard
down. Don't let what's happened thus far bias your outlook on the rest of the
main severe weather season in Oklahoma (keeping in mind that tornado season in
Oklahoma is actually year round!).

Some May storm systems are not going to warrant extreme vigilance like others.
The system coming in tonight through Thursday, for instance, ain't no May 19-20,
2013. The main threats with this one will be hail and high winds.






Even with this relatively benign system coming, however, the tornado threat is
pretty low, but it ain't zero.

Yeah, looks pretty slow coming up...no "OH MY GOSH!" systems on the horizon.



But also remember the 60 tornadoes on May 3, 1999 (or the 56 on May 10, 2010).

All it takes is one day. Heck, all it takes is one tornado!

Okay, I've done my best to jinx the tornado season for the rest of spring. This
jinx would be good though.

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org