Ticker for February 2, 2017

                
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February 2, 2017   February 2, 2017   February 2, 2017   February 2, 2017


It's Bigfoot Day!!




Groundhogs? HA! Like a groundhog seeing its shadow would have anything to do with
the weather. PUH-LEASE! However, it is well known in Oklahoma that if Bigfoot
sees his shadow on Bigfoot Day, that's a sure sign of 6 more weeks of drought.
Well, 6 more weeks or 6 more years. We're not quite sure of the science on that
just yet, but it appears to be pretty accurate. As legend has it, Bigfoot saw
his shadow on Bigfoot Day back in 1931, 1952 and 2011.

We heard that the big fella was hanging around the Doorant (Durant for you
non-Okies) area, so let's go to the meteogram to check the solar radiation
measurements and see if he saw his shadow.



DOH!! Not only do we see the front pass through last evening that has chilled
us to the bone this morning, we also see just enough light early this
morning for Bigfoot to have seen his shadow. Very, very unfortunate.

In all seriousness, however, the drought is still here and it has now been 3
weeks since our big ice/rain storm. After some improvements after that storm,
and a more minor storm the following weekend, we are left with about 79% of
the state in drought, 31% of that in the Severe/Extreme category (only 4% in
that Extreme category, however).



As we said, it's been about 3 weeks now, and while the dreaded orange colors
aren't showing up on the days with less than a quarter-inch rainfall map just
yet, they're getting close.



The drought is significantly impacting things like our winter wheat crop, as
illustrated here by OSU Fire Meteorologist and Mesonet OK-FIRE Program Manager
JD Carlson. This is every relative greenness map at the end of January since
1992. Pretty clear evidence of at least the partial impact of drought (some
freeze damage and grazing practices also play a part, but drought would be
the big factor here).

https://content.mesonet.org/ticker/archive/20170202/Rel-Greenness-Series.pdf

Even another week working with that extra moisture in the soil and some warm
temps didn't seem to improve things any.



And speaking of fire, since that's what these maps are used for, we also have a
new one...a Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory has been issued for a large area
of Oklahoma, effective February 1 through February 14, 2017.

According to the Oklahoma Forestry Services, this report "serves to emphasize
critical wildland fuel conditions that result in elevated potential for
problematic fire behavior observations classified as well above normal. Fires
that occur under the current fuel conditions, in conjunction with critical fire
weather, are likely to be resistant to control efforts and exhibit problematic
to extreme fire behavior." You can read more about the Fuel Fire advisory
here:

https://content.mesonet.org/ticker/archive/20170202/Fuel-Fire-Advisory.pdf

However, this is the area of concern according to the advisory...a large part
of Oklahoma, obviously.



There is a chance of rain this weekend, however amounts are not looking
significant at this time. In fact, they're getting smaller and farther east
with each forecast period. Let's consider this rain event a "non-wash."



And even as we look into the next week and beyond, expect more above normal
temps and few chances of rain. The 7-day temperature graph is for the Norman
NWS forecast area, but is representative of increasing temps across the state.





As I've said many times, one storm a month just ain't gonna cut it. And if
February keeps this up, well, it doesn't take a pointy-headed climatologist
to figure out ZERO storms a month won't work either.

Thanks a lot, Bigfoot!

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org