Ticker for September 18, 2014

                
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
September 18, 2014 September 18, 2014 September 18, 2014 September 18, 2014


Odile?

Well, I said the forecast would be fluid. The heaviest rain totals being from the
latest forecast have now shifted more to the southwestern parts of the state. I
actually consider that a good thing. Not that other parts of the state are
without need of substantial moisture, but nobody needs it more than southwestern
Oklahoma where the lakes are seriously diminished.




But most of the state still has a substantial deficit since August 1 (after a
substantially wet June and July).





So this type of moisture pattern will at least help those areas across the western
half of the state, especially that parched SW Oklahoma corner!



Other parts of the state have seen relief in the last 7-10 days, with
significant totals down in SE Oklahoma.



In fact, it's raining right now across portions of NE Oklahoma.



And while that rain won't show up on the Drought Monitor this morning, the
rains down in the SE definitely eradicated the "abnormally dry (D0)"
conditions in that area where drought was likely developing.



Okay, given that drought picture this morning and with Odile headed this way,
AND with the possibility of El Nino still lurking, the U.S. Seasonal Drought
Outlook for today through the end of the year shows good news for Oklahoma.
Most of the current drought areas see the possibility of "Drought remains but
improves" with points to the north and east showing "Drought removal likely."



That's mostly based off the favorable seasonal precipitation outlook from CPC
which shows increased odds of above normal moisture for October-December.



The temperature outlook is basically a punt for Oklahoma with the obligatory
"Equal Chances" tag (meaning equal chances for above-, below- or near-normal
temperatures).



A wet weekend, and a wet fall through early winter? Odile? El Nino?

You like, no?

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org