Ticker for June 16, 2014

                
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
June 16, 2014      June 16, 2014      June 16, 2014      June 16, 2014


Will we break another tornado record?

This time for the LACK of tornadoes? I'm rooting for it and I don't care who knows
it (and I think I speak for most residents of SW OKC and Moore as well). I still
see only 7 tornadoes on the books thus far this year, at least that's the tally
from the Norman NWS website. Oklahoma has (still unofficially/preliminarily)
seen 4 twisters in April and 3 in May.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-2014

The average, based on the most accurate data (1951-2013), for the January 1 through
mid-June is somewhere on the order of 40-45 (the average for Jan-May is 38.8 and
the average for all of June is 7.8). I would assume (DANGEROUS!!!) that the
average for June is weighted more towards May than July since we transition from
our spring storm season to the jet stream-less doldrums of summer as we go through
the current month. Normally, once again. But if you just look at the preliminary
data from the NWS for this year thus far, we are currently at out lowest total
through June 15 since accurate records began.

-***-
Year    Jan.   Feb.    Mar.    Apr.    May.    Jun.    Jan-June
*2014    0      0       0       4       3       0          7
1988     0      0       5       0       2       3         10
2002     0      0       0       7       7       2         16
1989     0      0       2       1       7       6         16
1987     0      3       9       0       5       0         17
1952     0      0       0       7       5       5         17
1958     0      2       0       4       4       8         18
1963     0      0       3       1       11      4         19
-****-

*January 1-June 15

The lowest total for January through all of June (again, since 1950) is 10 from
1988, and nine of those 10 occurred before June 26 of that year. That's also the
only other candidate to beat our current Jan. 1-June 15 total of 7. AGAIN,
presuming that there aren't a couple of tornadoes out there still waiting to
be investigated and/or counted.

Now let's look at the lowest annual totals since 1950. It's not a shock that
most of these years in the top-10 (or bottom-10, I guess) are coincidental with
the lowest Jan-June totals, since we normally get the bulk of our tornadoes
during the March-June time frame.

-***-
Year     Jan-June    Annual
1988        10         17
2002        16         18
1989        16         20
1978        20         21
1952        17         22
1987        17         23
1950        20         23
1980        20         25
-****-

So 1988 is the year to beat. The 1950-2013 average for July-December is 9, so
if we get anywhere from average or less, we'd get a grand total of 16. TADA! A
new low-tornado record count for Oklahoma with one to spare. But Oklahoma's
weather rather famously doesn't look like that. We could have tornadoes dropping
later this week, albeit unlikely, with more storm chances (NWS-Tulsa had Picasso
give their graphic a shot!).






Are there tornadoes likely with these storms? No, not really. Are the NWS
offices predicting any tornadoes with these storms? No, not really. But they
along with every other Oklahoman know that when you get thunderstorms in Oklahoma
at any point in the year, the right conditions can suddenly appear (along with
a twister or two). And then you can't discount a large fall month either. Here
are the high totals for each month, July-December (and that's not even taking
into account June 16-30), along with the year they occurred.

July:        7, 1956
August:     13, 1979
September:  16, 1992
October:    27, 1998
November:   12, 1958
December:    4, 1971/1975/1982

It's once again not a coincidence that the highest totals (as well as the
averages) go up in the fall as we see that jet stream start to plunge back to
the south, coincidental with the last vestiges of the warm season heat and
moisture.

So I guess the answer to the question posed in the title is "I don't know." But
we have had our fewest number of tornadoes through June 15, at least based on
the preliminary total of 7 so far.

Tornado numbers are vexing, to say the least. As the NWS investigates all the
possible sightings from different sources (radar, spotters, chasers and the
public), a tornado or two always seems to pop up and ruin your finely crafted
(hey, work with me) Ticker. And the worst irony of all this counting I'm doing
is even though we've had the fewest number of tornadoes through June 15, we
still had a deadly tornado strike the state. That would be the April 27 Quapaw
tornado that killed one and injured 12 others (and even more as it crossed
over into Kansas). In fact, we could have just one more tornado in the state
and it could still cause fatalities and injuries. That's what I root for no
tornadoes instead of relying on the chances of them only hitting open fields.

I'm from Moore, that's just how I'm gonna roll from now on.

At any rate, this is a drought I'm very much glad to see, and I hope it
continues even as our "other" drought continues to diminish across parts of the
state.

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org