Ticker for January 5, 2011

                
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January 5, 2011    January 5, 2011    January 5, 2011    January 5, 2011


ARCT-OCALYPSE!

No word yet to determine if next week's deep freeze is a true bread-and-milk
emergency, but I'm headed to Braum's tonight just in case. You can never have
too much ice cream at times like this. With talk of the coldest weather to hit
these parts in quite some time, I thought I'd try and remember the last time,
in these parts, it got quite that cold.

Ah yes, 365 days ago! As some of you remember, it was downright chilly the first
week of January 2010. You can see the damage done by looking at this map of
hours below 20 degrees from the January 5-11 last year (including lowest
temperature reached, -6 degrees at Vinita and Goodwell), courtesy of the
Oklahoma Mesonet:



There are vast differences to go along with the similarities to last year's
brush with the North Pole versus this year.

Similarities:

1) The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index was decidedly negative for a decisively
long time, giving the eastern half of the U.S. a bone-chilling early winter.

2009-10 - 

2010-11 - 


Okay, that's all I can think of, other than something about Lindsay Lohan being
in either jail or rehab. Either is a safe pick probably.

Differences:

1) El Nino vs. La Nina - Last year we had a strong El Nino combine with the
AO to give us plenty of wintry weather prior to January.  Does the Christmas
Eve blizzard ring a bell? This year Oklahoma and the Southern Plains have been
under the spell of La Nina and its broad dry pattern.

drought monitor, early January
2010: 

2011: 


percent of normal rainfall
2009: 

2010: 


2) Preceding warmth: October-December 2009 was the 12th coolest statewide
and 2.4 degrees below normal while October-December 2010 was the 44th warmest,
0.8 degrees above normal.

My point? Well, that's your first mistake in reading this far and thinking I
had one.

In all seriousness, however, the point is that this cold air outbreak is going
to come as much more of a shock this go around. People, pets, livestock ... all
are going to be particularly vulnerable since our winter has been so mild thus
far with little acclimation to true arctic air.

To further complicate matters for agricultural producers, the wheat crop has
become stressed by droughy conditions in some areas and will not like the
frigid temperatures one bit. A good blanket of snow would be a nice gift to
help insulate those sub-layers of soil from the really chilly air above the
surface.

At any rate, the iceman cometh! Crank up your heat, buy plenty of ice cream and
act like it's July.

(liability clause forced by the Ticker's lawyers: eat the ice cream indoors)

Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org