Ticker for June 10, 2010

                
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The Droughtman Cometh

I'm not sure what could be more unwelcome in Oklahoma right now, other than
perhaps a call from Big XII commissioner Dan Beebe, but drought has officially
developed in southwestern Oklahoma. Now I say "officially" simply because it
has been designated as such by the newest version of the U.S. Drought Monitor:



Drought is not something that suddenly develops, of course, but conditions have
continued to worsen in that area since the beginning of the year. With wheat
harvest passing through, there will soon be a sea of plowed fields exposing
what little soil moisture is left in that area to the mercy of the summer sun
and winds. As you can see from this Fractional Water Index (FWI) map from the
Oklahoma Mesonet, the FWI for Weatherford is now zero, zilch and nada (in that
order). That's dry, folks.



That area simply hasn't enjoyed the rain other parts of the state has over the
last 30, 60, 90, 120 days:






And those deficits add up:



The danger now is that we're just entering our normal transition period from
spring to summer when the rain spigots turn off and the heat ratchets up a
notch. Here's proof, courtesy of our fine research folks here at OCS. These are
daily-averaged precipitation and temperature plots for the Oklahoma Mesonet over
the 1994-2008 time frame:




Wow, did I just claim to prove summer?? Okay. But there is something very
interesting in that rainfall plot. Notice the sudden drop off in daily
precipitation right around the middle of June? That is the mid-June transition
to summer that everybody who lives here already knows about, but now it's shown
graphically.

So, yes, drought is a very unwelcome guest arriving at the beginning of summer
because the chance for alleviation is much smaller. Now every summer season
doesn't necessarily follow the climatological game plan, so the hope for rain
is not a lost cause just yet.

But, it's something to be watched. Drought Summertime drought in Oklahoma tends
to be rather unpleasant, after all.

Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
(405) 325-2253