Ticker for March 25, 2009

                
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March 25, 2009     March 25, 2009     March 25, 2009     March 25, 2009


There's Snow Business Like Snow Business Like Snow Business I Snow

The new-fangled substitute replacement Ticker staff is busy dusting off its
collection of "okies can't drive in the snow" quips after seeing the current
forecast for this weekend. Okay, defense-mode on: being from the Panhandle
area (Buffalo OK, state record snowstorm, February 1971, 36 inches, drifts
to 20 feet...I was there!), where a few inches of snow turns into a few feet
because of the wind, I actually do know how to drive in the snow. We learn
at an early age out there because if you go off in the ditch, it can be
awhile before somebody comes along and finds you. On the plus side, chances
are you aren't going to hit any trees, and if you do, it's more than likely
a red cedar.

However, before I digress further, the snow forecast brings to mind a great
study of heavy snows in Oklahoma; particularly, where and when they are most
likely to occur. As it turns out, the place to be if you want to see a good
pounding by the white stuff is the Oklahoma Panhandle (not shocking), and you
should be there in March (sorta shocking).

Senior Forecaster Mike Branick of the Norman NWS office looked at state
snowfall data from 1951-2001 and came up with a heavy snow climatology, which
you can see for yourself at:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/climate/heavysnow/

For the purpose of the climatology, heavy snow events were defined as "those
which produced at least one 24-hour snowfall report of 6 inches or more, or
at least two 24-hour snowfall reports of 4 inches or more".

Looking at his results, one thing jumps out at us right off the bat: sleds
are normally not a hot commodity in southern Oklahoma. In fact, it receives
snowfalls of 4 inches or greater once every 2-3 years or so, while
northwestern Oklahoma can receive these types of snows several times a year:



For heavier events, 8 inches or greater, the disparity grows even larger.
Southern Oklahoma will receive a snowfall of 8 inches or greater once every
10-20 years while northwestern Oklahoma might get one every couple of years:



If Oklahoma were to receive a heavy snow, when would it most likely occur?
That one is a bit trickier, and it depends on location. Despite their rarity,
southern Oklahoma receives more of its heavy snowfalls in January, the coldest
month of the year:



As you head north, however, the peak for heavy snows spreads out. Along the
I-44 corridor, the heavy snow frequency is greatest in January and February.
For 8-inch or greater events only (the darker portions of the bars in
figure 5), however, the peak for the northeast is most definitely in March.
As you look farther to the west and north, the frequency for heavy snows
shifts to February then March. If you want to see a snow of 4 inches or
greater in the western Panhandle, March is the month. If you want to see a
snow of at least 8 inches, January or March will both prime bets.

Another interesting side-note is that major events of 16 inches or more
are clearly more frequent during March than any other month. That is evident
from the top-ten heaviest snowstorms from 1951-2001:

Rank        Date(s)           Max      Location
1	21-22 February 1971	36	Buffalo
2	24-25 November 1992	22	Laverne
3	16 March, 1970	        20	Bartlesville
16-17 January 2001	20	Kenton
5	8-9 March 1994	        19	Stillwater
12-14 March 1999	19	Medford
7	4-5 March 1989	        18	Kansas
18-19 January 1990	18	Goodwell
22-24 December 1997	18	Laverne
18-19 March 1999	18	Kenton

So now we can sit back and watch this weekend and see if Mother Nature goes
according to plan. But first, I have to go to the store and stock up on bread
and milk, then cancel the grand opening of "Gary's Sled Shack" in Burneyville.

Gary McManus
Assistant State Climatologist