Ticker for September 2, 2008

                
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September 2, 2008  September 2, 2008  September 2, 2008  September 2, 2008



Recipe for Flooding

"Ingredients-based" analysis and forecasting is widely popular, and
the name pretty much says it all: there are certain "ingredients"
that can come together to produce a "recipe" for a certain event
or phenomenon.

Today is a pretty rock-solid example of the type of scenario that
produces heavy late-summer and autumn rainfall events. Take a look
at the following image from lunchtime today:



Two main features to point out:

1. The (well-formed) remnants of Hurricane Gustav are clearly
lurking and spinning in the Arklatex. Gustav, like all tropical
systems, is positively brimming with a soupy stew of moisture
(somebody call the Food Metaphor Police, please). A damp dome
of mid-70s dewpoints dominate his domain (somebody call the
Alliteration Police).

2. A cold front is evidenced by a band of precipitation and a
sharp change in dewpoint across the Great Plains. As a boundary,
one of a front's chief job duties is to position a focal point
for lifting potentially precipitation-producing parcels (okay,
that does it, somebody strike the gong).

Okay, it doesn't take much of a chef to put together the rest of the
recipe. Gustav's abundant moisture would produce copious precip anyway,
but the interaction with a front can enhance those totals dramatically.

Thankfully, the timing of these ingredients also comes into play.
You can't cook the flour, then throw the sugar in six hours later
and expect a batch of flood-producing cookies. It just don't work
that way.

But, it will be interesting to see how the front will play along with
Gustav's easterlies later today.