Ticker for May 2, 2001

                
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
May 2, 2001        May 2, 2001        May 2, 2001        May 2, 2001


Year-to-date Rainfall Totals Belie Irregular Season

A quick look at the year-to-date rainfall from OCS's Oklahoma Rainfall
Update ( http://climate.mesonet.org/rainfall-update.html ) shows values
pretty much right at normal for the first four months of the year.

That's good, right?  Not necessarily.

When dealing with rainfall on seasonal and longer time scales, "when"
is just as important as "how much".  And the "when" part of the 2001
year-to-date rainfall isn't as normal as the "how much" numbers would
indicate.

Of this year's 9.46 inches of rainfall statewide, 6.56 inches fell
during the months of January and February.  That leaves a paltry total
of less than three inches during March and April.

This isn't the way it's supposed to happen.  Or, put more accurately,
this isn't the way people expect it to happen.  Climatologically
speaking, March and April mark the beginning of the wettest months
of the year.  Oklahoma's "normal" rainfall value for the two month
period is almost six inches.  In contrast, during January and February
we expect very little rain (a total of about three inches).

What's this all mean?  Well, consider a crop that is geared to survive
cold and dry winter months before flourishing in spring rainfall.
When the March-April rainfall totals look like what we expect in
January-February, and vice versa, it causes stress for that crop.
In other words, this is a very large part of the reason we're hearing
production warnings from the winter wheat community this month.


Fire Danger Model Indicates Rising KBDI

The rainfall deficit during the last 60 days has left its mark on the
Oklahoma fire danger situation as well.  The Keetch-Byram Drought Index
is creeping up into values above 200 for much of the state.  This is
quite an increase compared to just a month ago:

May 1: 

Apr 1: 


The numbers aren't all that bad by themselves, but deserve attention
as we move into the very warm season.