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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... November 28, 2016 November 28, 2016 November 28, 2016 November 28, 2016 Ix-nay on the ow-snay I REFUSE TO TALK ABOUT SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND! I just do. If I start talking about snow, then you'll start talking about snow, then we'll all start talking about snow, then it will sink in that winter is here. Oh, it's still fall, but once it snows, it's winter. So no more talk of snow. Oh by the way, there is a chance of snow for this upcoming weekend, but the forecast models are all over the place on the placement on the placement of a large upper-level low pressure system. And when you're talking snow (and any mode of weather, really), that makes all the difference. Just check out the Norman NWS forecast office's discussion early this morning and get lost in the vernacular. "Beyond Thursday, the forecast confidence is low for late Friday into the weekend. The forecast continues to hinge on the eventual evolution of a closed-low across the southwest. The 28/00Z ECMWF is now a significant outlier, indicating a more progressive low and a colder temperature profile. This solution would indicate winter weather will be possible Saturday morning and even more so late Saturday into Sunday as the low lifts northeastward--placing parts of the area in the wrap around precipitation zone. However, the (TICKER NOTE: insert lots of weird forecast model names here) suggest the low will cut-off farther west and that the temperature profile will be warmer, reducing the potential for winter weather." Here's the key phrase from later on in the discussion: "The bottom line is the forecast will continue to evolve with any potential impacts too early to determine. Either way, expect a cloudy/chilly weekend with at least some scattered showers possible." Oof! That's sounds dangerously like winter. Now if you're talking below-freezing weather as winter, then it's been here awhile already. Here are the hours at or below freezing for November thus far. If you'll check out the little gray numbers below the blue "hours" number at each Mesonet site, you'll notice that just about everywhere in the state has now had a hard freeze (28 degrees or lower). http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20161128/hours-below-frzng-november.png Other than that, we have an exiting storm system that brought decent rains to mostly SE OK http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20161128/24hour-rain-totals.png while the NW 2/3rds of the state are still hurting for moisture. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20161128/mesonet.rainfall.tenthinch.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20161128/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png Which leads us to our next problem...an otherwise boring week for the most part might be not-so-boring thanks to fire danger this afternoon. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20161128/nws-norman-monday-fire.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20161128/nws-tulsa-fire-monday.gif Thank goodness we made it all the way through without talking about snow this weekend! http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20161128/nws-norman-weekend-snow.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20161128/nws-amarillo-snow.png Oops. Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================