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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... October 13, 2015 October 13, 2015 October 13, 2015 October 13, 2015 Mighty Rain? http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/rain.jpg Well, maybe. I don't have to tell you that it has gotten dry across most of Oklahoma. I did that yesterday. And I don't have to tell you that it has been unseasonably warm, either. But I'm going to anyway. Since September 1, the statewide average temperature is 2.9 degrees above normal at 73 degrees. Average highs are running 2.7 above normal and average lows about 3.2 degrees above. All of that has intensified drought conditions from south to north, and also given us this lovely fire danger lately. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/nws-norman-7day-firedanger.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/nws-norman-firedanger.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/nws-tulsa-firedanger.png And the heat is still on for a few days, then off, then probably back after that. In other words, late summer, fall, then back to late summer. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/nws-norman-heat.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/nws-norman-7day-planner.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/oct18-22-temp-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/oct20-26-temp-outlook.gif But do you see that white area down in the Desert Southwest in the midst of all that increased probability for above normal temperatures area? I do believe that is that crazy upper-level low pressure system that has been wandering around in that area, cut off from any sort of flow or steering mechanism to push it this way. Those maps seem to indicate that it is possibly going to move this way, and maybe bring some rain chances with it. The precipitation outlooks sure feel that way. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/oct18-22-precip-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/oct20-26-precip-outlook.gif And CPC's new experimental 3-4 week precip outlook seems to agree as well, and a little less bullish on the heat sticking around. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/oct24-nov6-precip-outlook.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/oct24-nov6-temp-outlook.gif Complete transparency here, those were issued last Friday, so the models used to generate them might have changed a bit. A new one will be issued this Friday. To bolster that precip outlook, we also see indications of better rain chances in the Canadian model (this is through the 28th, and is an indication of the odds of seeing at least an inch of rain accumulate through that period) http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/1inch-accum-precip-odds.gif and also in one of the prime U.S. medium-range forecast models, especially in week 2 (Oct. 20-26) and week 3 (Oct. 27-Nov. 2) http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/CFS-week1-2.precip-anomalies.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/CFS-week3-4.precip-anomalies.gif Unfortunately, for those of you looking for that first freeze to help with the sneezing and whatnot, that doesn't look like it will be occurring anytime soon either http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/CFS-week1-2.temp-anomalies.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20151013/CFS-week3-4.temp-anomalies.gif Remember, these forecasts are well out past the period of great skill, and a big pattern change could happen at any time past that 1-week point. But one thing we do know, the sun is getting lower in the sky, and is out for shorter periods of time. It will get cooler, regardless of above normal temperatures. Until then, enjoy the sun, hope for rain, and bide your time until winter. That's coming too. Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================