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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... August 25, 2022 August 25, 2022 August 25, 2022 August 25, 2022 Great? https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220825/7day-rain-forecast.png I must be doing things wrong... Go ahead, continue with your list...I'll wait. Finished? Okay, so I must be doing things wrong. Every time I've been to the State Fair, it's always 6000 degrees in full sun and people are grasping for any slice of shade they can get. Wait a minute...I'm now getting word that the State Fair is open at night. Ahhh, I wish I had known that earlier. But the lore, as we've Ticked about many times, is that the State Fair often ushers in rainy (and sometimes cooler) weather. There is some science behind that, of course. Fall is our secondary rainy season as the jet stream begins to meander down our way again as the sun's path heads south after its normal northward vacation during the summer. The truth is obviously more complicated than that, as persistent weather patterns can often mean the aforementioned (English to Okie dictionary: "the stuff I talked about before") days of 6000 degrees and full sun can often rule for long periods during the State Fair. But it is difficult to go a full two weeks in Oklahoma without day-to-day weather changes. So chances are, yes, there will be rain during the State Fair in mid-September, and even some pretty big differences in temperature. At any rate, as my above graphic shows, there does appear to be a pretty good chance of active weather next week. As usual, there are some pretty big differences in the forecast models with one going with a persistent low pressure system over our area, which would mean more "socked in" weather with good rain chances, at least for scattered rains, throughout next week. The other solutions show the dreaded heat dome trying to inch its way back, but in lesser form. I'm going with the more optimistic version with rain and cooler weather. I think that's how it has been trending, so we'll see. Rain chances should start Saturday up in the NW and trend eastward across northeastern OK on Sunday. Then we'll see. The CPC outlooks are still showing seasonal to below normal temp chances with above normal rain chances further out next week. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220825/aug30-sept3-outlooks.png Other than that, the drought continues full force across northern Oklahoma, but at least the folks down south saw some relief. It wasn't too long ago that the roles were reversed. What we need to do is get some good statewide rains for all-around relief. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220825/20220823_ok_trd.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220825/DM-change-1week.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220825/DM-change-4weeks.png The Drought Monitor still reflects the combination of the abundant rainfall over the last week over southern and west central Oklahoma, generally, vs. the long-term deficits of the drought conditions that began nearly a year ago. And of course some areas are dealing with both the flash drought that got its start on June 11 as well as the longer term deficits of the past year. That and the Drought Monitor's built-in fail-safe of not making abrupt 2-category changes up or down a regular thing mean SOME changes, but not widescale moves, down south. Take a look at our rainfall deficits of 30/60 days and those of the past 365 days. We will throw in the percent of normal maps for the same time frame because a 6-inch deficit in the Panhandle is not the same as a 6-inch deficit in SE OK. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220825/del30day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220825/del60day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220825/del365day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220825/pct30day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220825/pct60day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220825/pct365day_rain.current.png So if you look at the 30-day maps, you might say that the drought is over in southern Oklahoma. But looking at those longer term maps, maybe not! That's why it takes dullard types like climatologists to look at these things sometimes, to not be attracted to the bright shiny things, like 30-day rainfall, without taking the more boring long-term statistics into account. Anyway, it's now up to Mother Nature to decide where to go...HOT next week with some rain chances, or COOL with lots of rain chances. All complaints are welcomed and can be directed to our Complaint Department... that brick wall over there. Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================