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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... July 21, 2022 July 21, 2022 July 21, 2022 July 21, 2022 Drought explosion! https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/20220719_ok_trd.png Boom indeed. Fueled by both a dry AND a heat spell that began June 11, drought has rapidly expanded across the state of Oklahoma and the region in the last three weeks. The combination of heat and dry weather, prime ingredients for flash drought in the warm season, with added help from an abundance of the summer sun, has brought us back to levels of drought not seen in the state in over four years. You have to go back to Feb. 20, 2018, to find the last U.S. Drought Monitor map that had virtually the entire state in at least D1 (Moderate) drought. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/2022-vs-2018-drought.PNG That drought was just getting ramped up, an ominous sign for our current flash drought, which could continue to intensify and spread and end up a longer-term drought episode. Much of the region is suffering the same fate, as evidenced by the 4-week change map from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Portions of the area that don't show large increases are still mired in long-term drought with origins back to late August 2021, including much of western Oklahoma. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/4week-change-DM.png The current flash drought episode (and the longer-term drought's persistence) is fueled by that dearth of rainfall and abundance of heat that began some 40 days ago. We are still showing that period to be the driest such span in the last 100 years, a statistic that continues to hold firm with each additional day. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/june11-july21-rain-totals.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/june11-july21-departure.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/june11-july21-pct-normal.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/june11-july21-stats.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/mesonet.rainfall.tenthinch.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png Mesonet statewide average graphs of long-term average (2007-2021) data vs. 2022 shows the magnitude of the temperature, pct. of possible sunshine, and resulting evaporation anomalies, to go along with that record dryness. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/statewide-avg-temp.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/statewide-avg-pct.sunshine.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/statewide-avg-evaporation.png So that's a whole lot of bad news, right? Well, maybe there's some good news down the line? Some of the forecast models are showing a pattern change as we get later into next week to end July and begin August. Maybe a flattening of that heat dome which could allow for a front or two, and additional rainfall chances. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/july26-30-precip-outlook.png Now here's the trick, however. That shows increased odds of above normal rainfall (pretty sure it won't be snow, but it IS Oklahoma, after all), but we also have to remember this is one of the driest parts of the warm season. So what would "above normal" mean in this case? Well, we know it's better than what we've been getting, at least for most of the state. But it HAS rained in the last few days, and there is a chance of showers and storms in the state today and tomorrow thanks to a fading frontal boundary (and we all know just how painful that can be) hanging out in the area. And then we see a bit of those increased rain odds next week starting to show up on the7-day rainfall map. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/2day-rainfall.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/7day-rain-forecast.gif BUT WAIT! I can't let you get away without dampening (ba dum bum!) your hopes just a bit. Well, it's not ME doing it, it's Mother Nature. The CPC outlooks for both August and the August-October periods show rather depressing fortunes for Oklahoma and its drought situation. Both periods see increased odds of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation across most of the state, and then for that August-October period...drought persistence or intensification. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/august-temp-outlook.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/august-precip-outlook.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/aug-oct-temp-outlook.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/aug-oct-precip-outlook.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/aug-oct-drought-outlook.png But hey, those don't have to come true, right? The cautionary tale here is that a third straight cool season with La Nina is looking more and more likely, so as we get into October and November, we could see an impact from that sea surface temperature and atmospheric wind pattern anomaly in the form of warmer and drier weather from the mid-fall period through next spring. Heck, we need to get past the next seven days, though, which look hot! And with that chance of rain today comes higher humidity and more high heat warnings. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/current-dewpoints.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/latest.oklahoma.heat.gif Oh yeah, our Mesonet-era tying minimum temperature from Kingfisher yesterday of 89 degrees didn't make it through the evening. Kingfisher dropped to 85 degrees before midnight. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/yesterdays-lows.png Oh well, you lose some, you lose some (not much winning going on right now). The heat continues for another week at least...then, we'll see. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20220721/nws-norman-7day-temps.png Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================