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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... June 8, 2023 June 8, 2023 June 8, 2023 June 8, 2023 All others must bow! https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/el-nino-advisory.png To quote that dude that used to handle roses on TV, and also work on Channel 9 as a sports anchor..."It's official." No wait, that was the guy that used to keep people captive on an island on that other reality show. Well, it doesn't matter. What DOES matter is that the Climate Prediction Center has issued an "El Nino Advisory," which means: "Issued when El Niño conditions are observed and expected to continue." And to quote NWS Southern Region meteorologist Victor Murphy: "The screaming message is that the atmospheric reaction has now coupled with the warm temps in the Nino 3.4 Region of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. This was the last domino to fall, as the Nino 3.4 SSTAs weekly average was +0.8C. As a result, CPC has issued an El Nino Advisory!" In other words, the Sea Surface Temps (SST) have been in El Nino territory of +0.5C for awhile, but the necessary coupling with the atmosphere has now occurred and a full-fledged El Nino is here. Here's a look at all the things that have to occur to get an official El Nino declaration. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/DiagnosticFlowchart_610.png Here's a bit more info from CPC: "At this time, the range of possibilities at the peak of the event (November-January) include an 84% chance of at least a moderate El Niño (> 1.0C) to a 56% chance of a strong El Niño (> 1.5C). There is a 25% chance of an event greater than 2.0C." You can see those probabilities on this here table showing the chances for each SST anomaly as we go forward into the 3-month periods (starting with MJJ, or May-June-July, and ending with JFM, or January-February-March of 2024). I've labeled the weak, moderate, strong categories for your ENSO-determining pleasure. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/ENSO-magnitude-probability.png And you can see here the actual modeled predictions through that same period. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/enso-predictions.gif Now as we all know by now, El Nino becomes important in our neck of the woods come the cool season when we get into the cool season, mid-Fall'is through mid-Spring'ish (so let's say November through March...ish). Impacts peak in winter. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/ElNino-Jet-Wintertime-Pattern.jpg It doesn't always work out this way, of course. Each El Nino and its impacts are different, but strength does tend to matter as you can see from these precip anomaly maps for each category of weak, moderate, strong, and very-strong El Nino events since 1950. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/el_nino_wk.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/el_nino_mod.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/el_nino_stg.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/el_nino_vstg.png And let's remember that there is still a small chance El Nino DOESN'T continue into the fall, but fades away. As Emily Becker, ENSO Guide-Extraordinaire states in her blog: "...nature always has surprises in store, and predicting anything several months in advance is difficult. While El Niño conditions have developed, there’s still a small chance (4-7%) that things will fizzle out. Clearly, we think this is unlikely, but it’s not impossible. The incredible warmth of the global oceans could throw us a curveball, since we’ve not seen this before. Another potential, but also less likely, outcome is a weak El Niño, with about a 12% chance." Oh, so YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE! Yes, very small though. You can read more of Emily's fantastic blog about the current El Nino here: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/june-2023-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-here Now I know that folks are gonna want to tie in our recent rains with this El Nino, but I don't think so. The atmosphere has just become coupled with the SST anomalies, so before then I think we can just chalk our rains up to that persistent ridge of high pressure to our east pumping Gulf Moisture up and over us into upslope flow across the High Plains. Add in storm systems coming across and you get our last 30-60 days of rainfall. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/30day-rain-toals.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/pct30day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/60day-rain-totals.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/pct60day_rain.current.png The eastern half of Oklahoma, having been more under the influence of that ridge, is not impressed. Keep in mind that the jet stream has been quite weak over us as well over the last 30 days or so, which is also why we haven't had a lot of severe weather. And a strengthened jet stream is one of the impacts expected during an El Nino event. I could be wrong on that diagnosis, of course. Smarter people (which includes a broad range of the U.S. population) than me might have a different take. NOT a different take to be had here...the drought has been significantly impacted by our rains of the last 30-60 days. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/20230606_ok_trd.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/2month-DM-change.png Looking ahead, our tropical-like western OK rainfall bounty might be coming to an end. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/7day-rain-forecast.gif Hopefully this pans out for eastern OK at least. They definitely need the rains to come back in that area. Speaking of severe weather (weren't we??), there will be a chance of some severe winds and big hail on Saturday. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230608/OK_swody3_PROB.png Looks rather ominous, but tornadoes don't appear to be a big threat. Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================