MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... March 21, 2016 March 21, 2016 March 21, 2016 March 21, 2016
A shock to the system
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/shocked.jpg
Now the Ticker didn't SAYYYYY that winter was over (note to self...disable Ticker search function!), but we certain thought it. Who could blame us after one of the warmest winters on record (4th warmest, to be exact-ish), and continued forays into the 70s and 80s over the last month. But winter did rear its ugly head over spring break, just as feared, and Oklahoma's tender wheat crop might have taken a beating in the process. Check out these hours below freezing (and colder) maps from the Mesonet to see just how low it got, and for how long.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/hours-below-24degrees.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/hours-below-28degrees.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/hours-below-32degrees.png
And here are the actual low temperature maps from the last 3 days:
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/march18-lows.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/march19-lows.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/march20-lows.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/todays-lows.png
Let me say it for you..."UGH!" It's not like it should be such a shock, considering we still have a week to several weeks to go before our average last freeze date, depending on location, and even longer until our latest freeze.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/avg_lastfreeze.1981-2010.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/latest_lastfreeze.1981-2010.png
Again, the problem comes from how warm it has been. Statewide since about the middle of January, it has consistently been from 5-8 degrees above normal as shown in this Mesonet departure from average temperature map.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/2016-dep.avg-temps.png
Okay, enough cold talk, let's move on to another displeasurable (I may have made up a word there) subject...FIRE! As that cold air pulls off to the northeast and the southerly winds kick in (just look at the difference it makes in the 24 hour temperature change map)
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/24hr-temp-change.png
we're going to be left with a really nasty fire weather situation. We already see Red Flag warnings as well as fire weather watches for the NW 2/3rds of the state, and we might see that Red Flag warning replace some of those watches as the days go by.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/latest.oklahoma.fire.gif
Here are the NWS offices' take on the fire situation over the next several days.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/nws-tulsa-fire.planner.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/nws-norman-fire.planner.jpg http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/nws-amarillo-fire.planner.gif
The winds will be howling, the RH will plummet, we'll see summer-like temps, and things are still just brown/yeller enough -- especially up in the droughty NW quarter of the state -- that any fires that start will get quickly out of control.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/todays-forecast-highs.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/tuesdays-forecast-highs.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160321/wedensdays-forecast-highs.png
It does appear that we're in for a roller coaster again on the temperatures with several mostly dry cold fronts blasting through the state every few days. That means cool downs during that time, but also lots of wind and high fire danger at times (hence the most critical day this week being Wednesday following that day's cold front).
The advice remains the same during this period that it has for 2 months now... don't burn outdoors (indoors ain't good either for other reasons) and stay weather aware!
Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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