MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... January 16, 2014 January 16, 2014 January 16, 2014 January 16, 2014
Dry conditions spread east in Oklahoma
We've shown you evidence of continued drought across western Oklahoma the last couple of days. You know, fun stuff like Dust Bowl style dust storms and dry farm ponds. Well, the dry weather is really starting to catch up to parts of central and eastern Oklahoma as well. The truth is the amount of actual drought (D1-D4) is the same as last week on the newest U.S. Drought Monitor report, but we are seeing that "Abnormally Dry" (D0) yellow color spread to the east, where it now covers Oklahoma City up through Tulsa.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/OK-DM.png
Oklahoma still has 38 percent of the state in at least moderate (D1-D4) drought (and only 19 percent in at least severe drought), but their percentage of at least Abnormally Dry (D0-D4) went from 49 percent to 65 percent. The reasons are obvious ? it has gotten dry as heck out there in the last 90 days or so (and frankly, the deficits go back even farther than that). There were the rainstorms in early August and even during September, and the rain and snow during November and December, but for a large part of the I-44 corridor to the northwest, a whole lot of cold, dreary nothing.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/90day-rainfall.png
Those greens and yellers look pretty good until you look at the percent of normal map to see how they stack up against average. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/last90dayspct.png
So the greens and yellers ain't that great. We're not talking vegetables here! And I like to trace the real dry-down even farther back to the odd date of August 17th. That's when our rainy summer turned into dry summer and the deficits that were whittled down from mid-February through that period started to build again. So we basically have two different periods with different fortunes:
1. The February 15-August 17 period which saw us go from our warm, dry pattern of the previous couple of years to a cool, wet pattern. 2. The August 18-forward period which saw drought make a comeback, get beaten back again in the east, now starting to creep back east.
Check out the rainfall maps for yourself. They're quite striking.
Feb. 15-Aug. 17 (24.6" statewide avg, +3.7" above nrml, 12th wettest since 1921) http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/feb15-aug17-totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/feb15-aug17-departure.png
Aug. 18-Jan. 16 (9.2" statewide avg, -4.8" below nrml, 22nd driest since 1921) http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/aug18-jan16-totals.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/aug18-jan16-departure.png
So it's easy to see why that D0 made a sudden jump up to the northeast when you combine the rainfall deficits of the past 5 months with even more dry weather over the past 1-3 months. Even in the cool season, it can have an effect, especially when we've been so windy and warm lately (with lots of fire danger to go along with it).
What's coming up next? A whole lotta nothing except for lots of dry weather and occasional cold fronts that kick up the fire danger. That's what it looks like at least through the rest of January. Here's the 7-day precip forecast, and also the 8-14 day outlooks from CPC. Notice the 8-14 day outlooks are probability maps, and basically show increased odds of below normal precip and a mixed back for temperatures.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/7day-rain-forecast.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/jan23-29-precip.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/jan23-29-temps.gif
We also have new monthly and seasonal outlooks from CPC today, so here are the temp and moisture outlooks for February and also the February-April 3-month period. Again, these are probability maps.
CPC February Outlooks http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/feb-precip.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/feb-temps.gif
CPC February-April Outlooks http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/feb-apr-precip.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/feb-apr-temps.gif
The only real climate signals we see in those are increased odds of above normal temperatures across the southern half of the state in February, and across the entire state for the February-April period. The precip outlooks give us the old "Equal Chances" EC mark, which means they don't have enough evidence to tip the scales in any direction (INCLUDING NORMAL!! THESE DO NOT INDICATE INCREASED ODDS OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS!!).
Now, combine those with were we see drought now, and what does CPC expect the drought situation to look like at the end of April? Well, without any evidence of dry weather over the next three months, they see drought where there is already drought,and no drought where there is no drought. At least at the end of April. Bad news for the west (and the little farm pond, and Lake Tom Steed and folks wanting to drink water in Altus, etc.) and good news for the east, I reckon. However, the forecaster for this product did deem the forecast confidence for the depiction in the Southern Plains as "low." So I guess that would be bad for the east and good for the west??
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/season_drought.png
If we go moisture-less for the rest of January, we'll finish with about 0.28" on average across the state, which would make this the 7th driest January on record, back to 1895. Not good. But better than the 7th driest March, April, May, June, July, August, September or October. January is normally the driest month of the year, after all.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140116/January1-16-totals.png
Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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