OCS/Mesonet Ticker for January 11, 2016

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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
January 11, 2016 January 11, 2016 January 11, 2016 January 11, 2016

What's with the cold? What happened to the warm?

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160111/boring.jpg

I can handle boring weather. Take August, for instance, the January of summer.
At least it's warm then, and you get an occasional thunderstorm or two. This
January seems like most Januaries in Oklahoma, cold, windy, a minor storm system
or two dropping a bit of snow. Lots of frost to make your start to the day a bit
more miserable. We can trace all of this back to the day after Christmas when that
big cold front hit with tons of moisture. The moisture went away, but the cold
never has. So it was a definite pattern shift, owing mostly to a shift in what's
called the Arctic Oscillation (AO).

We've talked about the AO before

http://ticker.mesonet.org/select.php?mo=10&da=22&yr=2012

so you can read that for background. In a nutshell, the AO has gone to the dark
side (strongly negative), meaning the jet stream encircling the Arctic Circle
has weakened. Therefore, more dips in that jet stream occur, allowing that cold
arctic air to spill down to the south. You can see in this graph of AO values
since mid-September how it has been mostly positive, right up to Christmas, then
it plunges (and the cold air plunged south in conjunction).

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160111/Arctic-Oscillation-graph.png

You can also see in that graph that the AO is forecast to stay on the negative
side for the next week or so. Some of the individual forecasts try to bring it
back up to positive territory, but for the most part, the ensemble forecasts
keep it negative. So going by that, the arctic appears to be open for business
for a bit longer. Now these models aren't really able to forecast the direction
of the AO out much past a week, so that's about all we can say about it with
any skill.

The other operator is the North Atlantic Oscillation (also talked about in that
previous Ticker link). It also went into negative territory right after
Christmas. In a nutshell (again with the nutshells!), when it is negative, that
shows a blocking pattern out in the Atlantic around Greenland. Meaning the
air patterns the encircle the globe sort of get "blocked" from passing or
translating very well past that point. So all that cold air being allowed to
spill south due to the weakened jet stream encircling the arctic? Yep, since
the atmosphere is "blocked" to our east, it flows south where it can, right into
the eastern half of the country. Here again, you can see how it's been mostly
in positive territory, right up until the first of the year.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160111/North-Atlantic-Oscillation-graph.png

So what's it mean for us? For now, more boring weather with threats of minor
excitement when we manage to get a storm system through here. We still have
El Nino working its magic in the equatorial pacific. The problem is with these
numerous cold fronts coming through, they tend to scour the atmosphere of
moisture all the way to the Gulf of Mexico, our primary source of moisture. When
another front comes, there's no chance to work up those strong southerly winds
and get a good fetch of moisture up our way for it to work with. We've seen this
a lot over the last couple of winters, as those storms get much more active as
they get to the northeast of us. We hadn't seen that this season too much, again
until the end of December.

That doesn't mean we're not gonna have a whopper of a storm, enhanced by the
El Nino strengthened subtropical jet stream, come set up shop to the west of
us and pump tons of moisture to the north again just in time for one of these
strong cold fronts.

But it doesn't mean we will, either. How all these differing regimes mix together
and interact with each other is the key. The problem is, nothing is really TOO
skillful to predict out past a week. So for now, be prepared for more boring
weather. Don't get me wrong, I like boring weather. Better than floods, tornadoes,
ice storms and even drought. I just wish it was about a 30-40 degrees warmer
boring!

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160111/nws-norman-7day-planner.jpg

Oh, a chance for light snow this coming weekend?

YAWN!

Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================

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. . . Ticker for January 11, 2016 . . .

MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... January 11, 2016 January 11, 2016 January 11, 2016 January 11, 2016 What's with the cold? What happened to the warm? http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160111/boring.jpg I can handle boring weather. Take August, for instance, the January of summer. At least it's warm then, and you get an occasional thunderstorm or two. This January seems like most Januaries in Oklahoma, cold, windy, a minor storm system or two dropping a bit of snow. Lots of frost to make your start to the day a bit more miserable. We can trace all of this back to the day after Christmas when that big cold front hit with tons of moisture. The moisture went away, but the cold never has. So it was a definite pattern shift, owing mostly to a shift in what's called the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We've talked about the AO before http://ticker.mesonet.org/select.php?mo=10&da=22&yr=2012 so you can read that for background. In a nutshell, the AO has gone to the dark side (strongly negative), meaning the jet stream encircling the Arctic Circle has weakened. Therefore, more dips in that jet stream occur, allowing that cold arctic air to spill down to the south. You can see in this graph of AO values since mid-September how it has been mostly positive, right up to Christmas, then it plunges (and the cold air plunged south in conjunction). http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160111/Arctic-Oscillation-graph.png You can also see in that graph that the AO is forecast to stay on the negative side for the next week or so. Some of the individual forecasts try to bring it back up to positive territory, but for the most part, the ensemble forecasts keep it negative. So going by that, the arctic appears to be open for business for a bit longer. Now these models aren't really able to forecast the direction of the AO out much past a week, so that's about all we can say about it with any skill. The other operator is the North Atlantic Oscillation (also talked about in that previous Ticker link). It also went into negative territory right after Christmas. In a nutshell (again with the nutshells!), when it is negative, that shows a blocking pattern out in the Atlantic around Greenland. Meaning the air patterns the encircle the globe sort of get "blocked" from passing or translating very well past that point. So all that cold air being allowed to spill south due to the weakened jet stream encircling the arctic? Yep, since the atmosphere is "blocked" to our east, it flows south where it can, right into the eastern half of the country. Here again, you can see how it's been mostly in positive territory, right up until the first of the year. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160111/North-Atlantic-Oscillation-graph.png So what's it mean for us? For now, more boring weather with threats of minor excitement when we manage to get a storm system through here. We still have El Nino working its magic in the equatorial pacific. The problem is with these numerous cold fronts coming through, they tend to scour the atmosphere of moisture all the way to the Gulf of Mexico, our primary source of moisture. When another front comes, there's no chance to work up those strong southerly winds and get a good fetch of moisture up our way for it to work with. We've seen this a lot over the last couple of winters, as those storms get much more active as they get to the northeast of us. We hadn't seen that this season too much, again until the end of December. That doesn't mean we're not gonna have a whopper of a storm, enhanced by the El Nino strengthened subtropical jet stream, come set up shop to the west of us and pump tons of moisture to the north again just in time for one of these strong cold fronts. But it doesn't mean we will, either. How all these differing regimes mix together and interact with each other is the key. The problem is, nothing is really TOO skillful to predict out past a week. So for now, be prepared for more boring weather. Don't get me wrong, I like boring weather. Better than floods, tornadoes, ice storms and even drought. I just wish it was about a 30-40 degrees warmer boring! http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160111/nws-norman-7day-planner.jpg Oh, a chance for light snow this coming weekend? YAWN! Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================