MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... January 8, 2020 January 8, 2020 January 8, 2020 January 8, 2020
Crankbait
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200108/snowstorm.png Remember that movie "Crank" with Jason Statham gets injected with a poison that will kill him if his heart rate drops below freakout level? Well, climatologists are just the opposite of that, the boring sort that we are, so when we see forecast model output like the European model above, we almost...ALMOST...wake up enough to cause ourselves trouble. And even though I'm a confirmed cold-hater, this winter with all its 50s and 60s and lack of snow has been BORING. So yeah, that forecast does get the blood pumping. But alas, it's just one forecast model run from one of many, trying to prognosticate a storm system that's still over the ocean, that still has to cross the Rockies, that has uncertain timing between all the ingredients needed for snow, etc. etc.
And here's the American forecast model's counter punch.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200108/snowstorms-American.model.png
And then there are other forecast models, blends of models, and so forth that I'm not privy to. But, despite all of that, we still have weather going on TODAY, and that weather is pointing towards wildfire. Dangerous conditions with lots of wind later today gusting from 40-50 mph, low relative humidity, temps in the 60s and lots of dry fuel. Not really anything to do with drought conditions, primarily; this time of year with everything dead or dormant, you just need all of the above. And a spark, of course: a chain dragging a road, pump battery sparking, or somebody throwing a cigarette butt out the window. A Red Flag fire warning has been issued for much of the NW half of the state by the NWS, signalling those areas where the most danger lies. Really all the state should be on the lookout, however.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200108/latest.oklahoma.fire.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200108/nws-amarillo-fire.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200108/nws-tulsa-fire.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200108/nws-norman-fire.png
So I think it's best to get through today's weather, then we can worry about this weekend. Because this seasonal snow accumulation map is downright BORING!
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20200108/seasonal-snow-accumulation.png
Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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