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March 31, 2015 March 31, 2015 March 31, 2015 March 31, 2015
Crash Boom!
Here we go again? Hopefully with better results than last week. The severe risk
for today is "slight" according to SPC.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/day1otlk_1300.gif
The main risk today, and mostly across southern Oklahoma, will be wind and hail.
The tornado risk is quite low (less than 2%).
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif
The Norman and Tulsa NWS offices tell the story in their graphics as well.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/nws-norman-risk.jpg
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/nws-tulsa-risk.png
Now there are risks for tomorrow out west and then to the east on Thursday as
a frontal system moves through and spoils our early summer-like weather. But,
as per usual, we need the rain...ESPECIALLY out west! The last 90 days looks
pretty pathetic NW of I44 for the most part, and not too bad to the SE.
Even with the surplus and near normal areas in the SE, the state as a whole
has seen its 32nd driest such period since at least 1921. Eerily similar to
last year at this time.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/last90daystot.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/last90dayspct.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/last90days.stats.png
Unfortunately, even with a chance of rain (albeit small at times) throughout
the rest of the next 7 days
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/nws-norman-7day-planner.jpg
the actual moisture out of those chances looks to be close to nil for the NW
half of the state.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/7day-moisture-forecast.gif
Just thinking out loud here, it will not be good for the wheat crop if this
type of weather continues. The one saving grace is that the chances for another
devastating freeze event like last year isn't showing up at the moment. In fact,
if we look out to April 15 using the forecast models from our friends in
Canada, we see only slight chances for temperatures to dip below freezing for
most of the state.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/mar31-apr15-odds-below32.gif
That would jibe pretty well with our average date of last freeze of the season
(which has already passed for southern Oklahoma).
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/avg_lastfreeze.1981-2010.png
Although still a few weeks away from our LATEST spring freeze (not a warning
or prediction, just FYI!).
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20150331/latest_lastfreeze.1981-2010.png
Did I just doom us to a big freeze event? I don't think so. If that's how it
worked, it would have rained cats and dogs by now!
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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