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January 31, 2019 January 31, 2019 January 31, 2019 January 31, 2019
You had one job
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190131/20190129_OK_trd.png
WOW! We managed to make it a whole THREE WEEKS with a completely clear U.S.
Drought Monitor map. Nice job, Mother Nature. And it's just a wee spot, a mere
0.78% of the state. As my old pal Mercutio once said..."Ay, ay, a scratch, a
scratch. Marry, ’tis enough...No, ’tis not so deep as a well nor so wide as a
church-door, but ’tis enough, ’twill serve."
Now I'm no Bill Shakespeare, but I can see where this is heading. The spot of
abnormally dry conditions in Harmon County represents a bit larger area
emanating from the Texas Panhandle, where a larger area of moderate drought has
persisted.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190131/current_southern_plains_trd.png
And the reason for our dry intruder is valid...we have started to dry out across
the state, especially across western Oklahoma, and the far southwest in
particular where it's been more than a month without at least a quarter-inch of
rainfall in a single day. Same goes for parts of the Panhandle.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190131/mesonet.rainfall.tenthinch.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190131/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png
In January alone, the deficits have amounted to around 50% of normal for the
month.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190131/month.meso.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190131/month.norm_dep.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190131/month.norm_pct.png
Granted, given that January is our driest month, these aren't large
deficits...about a half-inch or so. But there is a semi-dormant wheat crop out
there in the fields that needs moisture, and we are on the upward swing now
in temperatures, climatologically speaking (it's sort of like speaking Klingon,
except much more boring). So there will be added pressure on our soil moisture
as the sun gets higher in the sky and our temperatures start to climb towards
spring.
There's very little hope for significant moisture in at least the next week in
that area, and even a bit farther out than that is less than hopeful. A bit of
an increased chance of above normal precip, but again it's early February, so
not really saying much there.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190131/7day-moisture-forecast.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190131/feb5-9-precip-outlook.gif
Our temperatures are going to get downright springlike as we get into the
weekend and early next week, and it will be windy as well. That's not good news
for those moisture supplies.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190131/sat-forecast-highs.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190131/sun-forecast-highs.png
So there you have it...we're on a slow crawl back towards moderate drought in
southwestern Oklahoma if we don't get rainfall soon. And you can look for that
abnormally dry yellow color to spread north and into the Panhandle as well. It's
not dire...spring and the rainy season is right around the corner. But we do
need rainfall.
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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