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November 30, 2017 November 30, 2017 November 30, 2017 November 30, 2017
Drought on the rise
I have good news and bad news. First, the good news.
It did rain this week. Not much for most, but most (in awhile) for a few.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20171130/rainrfc.48hr.png
And, the new Thor movie is awesome.
Okay, good news over.
Now for the bad news.
First, drought took another huge leap this week with continuing deficits out to
120 days across eastern and northwestern Oklahoma
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20171130/120days-depart-normal.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20171130/120days-pct-normal.png
And 30-60 day deficits across most of the rest of the state.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20171130/30days-pct-normal.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20171130/60days-pct-normal.png
Add those stats to increased wildfire danger, reports of drought-stressed
winter wheat, and flagging soil moisture, and you got a whole heap of new colors
on the drought map.
The USDA now rates 75% of Oklahoma's topsoil to be short or very short of
moisture, the worst two categories. And the Mesonet soil moisture maps show a
disturbing lack of moisture in that topsoil across much of the wheat belt
in western Oklahoma.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20171130/USDA-soil.moisture.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20171130/mesonet.4-inch.soilmoisture.png
Thus beget the new, ugly drought monitor map.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20171130/20171128_OK_trd.png
40 percent of the state is now in at least moderate drought, and you add in the
Abnormally Dry category (places headed toward drought in this case) and that
number jumps up to 73 percent. And we even have a bit of Extreme (D3) drought
showing up in McCurtain County. We haven't seen that category since last March.
And this is the most drought on the map since last April.
More bad news, the somewhat iffy promising storm for next week now looks like a
dud. The 7-day rain forecast now shows a tad for the far SE, but little else.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20171130/7day-rain-forecast.gif
And extend that out even farther, another disappointing medium-range outlook
from the Climate Prediction Center. It does look like it will cool down, however,
which helps the drought picture (and wildfire picture) somewhat.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20171130/dec7-13-temp-outlook.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20171130/dec7-13-precip-outlook.gif
Make no mistake...the drought will continue to advance/intensify without at
least a smidgen of precipitation, despite it being the cool season. The cool
down should help, but how long will that last? How long will the dry spell
last? Remember, we are in La Nina now, which doesn't bode well.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20171019/la.nina.impacts.png
But hey, that Thor movie!
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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