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. . . Ticker for April 30, 2019 . . .
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... April 30, 2019 April 30, 2019 April 30, 2019 April 30, 2019 Dumb and Twister http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190430/day1probotlk_1300_torn.png I don't know what to say about today's weather setup, other than it's a MESS! So many factors, contingent on so many things that just aren't clear yet. Looks like, at least at this point, that the greatest chance of severe weather will be close and then east of I35. The Storm Prediction Center has labeled an area from south central up through northeastern Oklahoma in Enhanced Risk, reflecting that thinking. Chance for significant hail in south central Oklahoma is a bit higher, while severe wind is a risk for most areas. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190430/day1otlk_1300.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190430/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190430/day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif From SPC's discussion on their outlook this morning, from which the above maps were generated. As I read that sentence, it sounded like Yoda. Assure you unintentional it was. "The parameter space along/southeast of the front will support the potential for significant tornadoes, given sufficiently sustained/ discrete supercell(s). However, the convective scenario still appears messy, inconsistently progged, and rather ambiguously focused on the mesoscale, as are potential positions of influential boundaries such as the front and outflows from morning/midday storms. Some weaknesses also are apparent in the forecast low-level hodographs above roughly the lowest km, likely related to the geometry of mass response to a positively tilted, weakening shortwave trough farther west. As such, too much spatial uncertainty in the threat exists to draw such an area at this time, though one may be needed in an update as mesoscale trends warrant." So to translate: "Solabe fagakol neliet. Sar ze sad losetat nenimi sogov ekacatu rahor amicara. Exe pirur gemo, enarele ler ti ierelucie siesatoc rise gococ. Rute asenupu enut, mo ari cero! Litoli otas pib atati nelaju ieretupo, lem nesenid hilid sihim vari pive. Sare lale urayoca natietu ci mug heyevin te men! Delihac ienure enidi la tay. Ronaha isobe ecixut tile hometol inula erepah elipalam atul we. Tir hesacur lovasa solec naseri ne dit. Honen fe luk uso anac sede. Dikepi seno ler etiemiq amafawe! Osa ruca rar hem girag negoro ri. Betidi nur siceda igotat noy reno mito? Yer tuhami soteteg pusiesap uxe. Wi sica ne ser naviti fiya lonitab." Okay, let's try that again. So to translate: There could be an area where the risk of significant tornadoes is increased along and southeast of the front, wherever that front might set up later this afternoon, and then however that front is being impacted by other boundaries, such as outflow boundaries being generated by ongoing storms, and other factors still unknown. See, a mess. And this will all get looked at throughout the morning into this evening, and as the mesoscale features set up and change things, the outlooks and forecasts will change along with it. What we can give you is the latest thinking by our local NWS offices. Again, these can and probably will change as the environment changes. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190430/nws-tulsa-tue-wed.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190430/nws-norman-tornado-risk.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190430/nws-norman-flood-potential.png http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190430/nws-norman-storm-timing.png One thing you'll see in common is that there will definitely be a flash flood risk today. The atmosphere is flush with moisture. And when Mother Nature flushes...well, there ya go. http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190430/latest.oklahoma.flood.gif There's not much else to say. These graphics are ALREADY dated. That's how these types of days work. The situations change hour by hour, minute by minute. That's why the phrase "stay weather aware" is used so often. Stay tuned to your favorite media source and the NWS office for your area. Follow them on social media, keep the TV on, etc. See ya tomorrow! http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20190430/day2otlk_0600.gif Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey (405) 325-2253 gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================