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April 28, 2016 April 28, 2016 April 28, 2016 April 28, 2016
The official Hank Kimball Severe Weather Forecast
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160428/conditional-severe.jpg
Okay, you've probably heard that we have another chance for severe weather
overnight tonight, through the morning and again tomorrow afternoon. Living in a
cave, are ya? Well, that could collapse, scaredy cat! Nothing really too ominous
about this setup. Storms could form late tonight and march across the state
through morning, bringing mostly a threat of heavy rains and hail (and lightning,
of course). The SPC has it as a "slight" risk, which is apropos, with a very
very low chance of hail and high winds. The tornado threat just ain't there through
that period.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160428/day1otlk_1300.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160428/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160428/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160428/day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif
And here are the local NWS offices' take on things.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160428/nws-norman-thur-fri-svr.jpg
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160428/nws-norman-thur-fri-timing.jpg
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160428/nws-tulsa-thur-fri-svr.gif
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160428/nws-amarillo-thur-fri-svr.gif
Again, nothing too alarming here, just some good old Oklahoma thunderstorms.
Now here's where things get interesting. With another powerful upper-level storm
approaching from the west, there will be an associated surface low, dryline and
warm front somewhere in the vicinity tomorrow afternoon. This is where the chance
of severe weather gets conditional. Where will that surface low and the boundaries
(dryline and warm front) be? How early will the storms clear out tomorrow to allow
for moisture return, daytime heating, etc., and a return of instability needed
for storms to form and turn nasty? The uncertainty is still too great at this
point. Right now, SPC has that area from western OK down through Texas where the
dryline and warm front could extend as being in the "slight" risk category.
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160428/day2otlk_0600.gif
And the Norman NWS office's take:
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160428/nws-norman-fri-afternoon.jpg
And from their forecast discussion (relating to what I said earlier, but from
folks who actually know what they're talking about):
"THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE... HOW MUCH
RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION WILL THERE BE AFTER THE EARLY
STORMS... WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT BE LOCATED... AND HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL BE ANY POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT. THERMODYNAMIC AND
SHEAR PROFILES FROM (THE FORECAST MODELS) POINT TO A
POTENT COMBINATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS... BUT THIS IS
STILL HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE ANSWERS TO THE QUESTIONS ABOVE.
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE ZONES /BOTH THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING/... BUT THE SPECIFIC
POTENTIAL FOR WHAT TO EXPECT IN SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW IS NOT
COMPLETELY APPARENT YET."
And from the SPC, concerning the possibility of ramping up the significance of
the weather tomorrow afternoon:
"GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS...UPGRADE TO
HIGHER PROBABILITIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF OK/TX IN
LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES HAVE BEEN MITIGATED."
Translation, from what I can tell? Well, the confidence in any severe weather
tomorrow is very low, but if things set up correctly, the impacts from that
severe weather could be significant, with all modes of severe weather back in
play for western and C OK down into N Texas, with supercells capable of
producing large hail, tornadoes and severe winds.
Unfortunately, for those wanting a definite forecast, it just ain't there yet,
and it might not be until the early afternoon on Friday. So what do you do in
the face of an uncertain forecast? Same thing you should always do...stay weather
aware, remain alert (but calm), and be prepared to act on your severe weather
safety plan if the need should arise.
How long's it been since you updated your severe weather safety plan? Well
neighbor, a can of Wolf Brand Chili ain't gonna help either.
Try this instead.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/spring_safety.html
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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