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April 27, 2016 April 27, 2016 April 27, 2016 April 27, 2016
A Few Good Forecasts
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160427/code-pds.jpg
YOU'RE DARNED RIGHT I DID! Well, I didn't, but the very seasoned and qualified
forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center did. While the severe weather produced
by last night's system didn't quite live up to the promise of the antecedent
conditions (and watches), the state and other parts of the Southern Plains still
ended up with a plethora of severe weather reports, including large hail, severe
winds and possible tornadoes. There were no "official" tornadoes reported in
Oklahoma just yet, despite several warnings, but that will likely change once the
NWS offices and others go out and inspect damage paths and other meteorological
forensic data. Here are the actual storm reports from yesterday, via the SPC:
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20160427/tuesday-storm-reports.png
No significant tornadoes in the state, however, and no widespread giant hail
either. But, as Sam Elliot says in "The Big Lebowski": "Sometimes you eat the
bar, and sometimes the bar eats you." That's always the caution when the
atmosphere serves up a big old heaping plate of armchair humility because once
she gets going, things can change in a hurry and mess up all the computer model
forecasts and antecedent conditions that went into the severe weather forecasts.
Things evolve, the storms forming this way or that or here disrupt the carefully-
but-cautiously laid forecasts. But that's okay. Knowing we don't know everything
about the atmosphere is what drives the research that will LEAD us to knowing
at least more about the atmosphere. So when the autopsy is done on the evolution
of yesterday's storm system, we'll know more.
The severe weather forecasters abide. I don't know about you but I take comfort
in that. It's good knowin' they're out there.
See ya Friday.
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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