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MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... March 23, 2023 March 23, 2023 March 23, 2023 March 23, 2023 Spacedrought https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/20230321_ok_trd.png Severe weather? You want to talk about severe weather? Now listen here, drought IS a climatologist's severe weather! Oh, those smug meteorologists get all the sexy stuff, like hail, tornadoes, flash floods, etc., while us climatologists get left with the table scraps, like drought and heat waves. Wait, I'm now being told I have two meteorology degrees. Well, in that case, I guess I do have to take today's severe threat seriously...not only because I have meteorology degrees, but also because I'm a car owner. Hail looks to be a primary threat today, with 2 inch-plus (2+ inch??) hail being possible in a pretty good swath of the state. There is also a wind and tornado threat, but those are pretty low. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/OK_swody1.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/OK_swody1_TORN.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/OK_swody1_WIND.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/OK_swody1_HAIL.png The timing on this can vary today, but this afternoon looks to be prime time. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/nws-norman-svr-timing.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/nws-tulsa-svr-timing.png So definitely a day to start being weather aware--tune into your favorite media weather source, as well as your local NWS office. Now let's go back to that drought. Well, we're not going back since we've BEEN there for over 18 months, but you know what I mean. The state is basically divided down the diagonal from SW to NE, with the SE half of the state in fairly moist conditions, vs. pretty drastic-if-not-catastrophic drought in the NW half. The 2023 rainfall patterns I've showed you are to blame, and March has been no different. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/march-rainfall-thus.far.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/delmonth_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/pctmonth_rain.current.png That's the same general pattern we've seen through the year thus far as well. The saving grace is that January through March is not the time in Oklahoma to look for bigtime moisture. Check out these maps showing both the short-term and long-term contributions to our annual precipitation totals for the January through March months. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/jan-march-rain-pct.png So that shows us that, at least through 2017 (starting both in 1895 and 2003), the Jan-March period contributes 5-20% of our annual totals, historically. Now contrast that with the upcoming April-June period. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/april-june-precip-percentage.png Aha! That shows us, historically speaking (also in English), that the upcoming 3-month period has brought us from 30-40% of our annual rainfall total. So it's certainly more damaging to miss out on our April-June rains vs. our January-March moisture, but here's the kicker: the DEMAND for that moisture is higher during the April/May/June period as well. Plants are coming out of dormancy, the weather is getting hotter, humans are filling up swimming pools and watering lawns... those factors increase the demand through both water usage and evapotranspiration needs. But that also means that even though not as bountiful, that cool season precipitation is extremely important for recharge because most of those factors are NOT happening during that time frame. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/chart.png At any rate, the damage has been done in Oklahoma, both in the short-term and long-term. There will be some bountiful rains today and tomorrow in the state, but once again reinforcing that broad pattern of dry in the NW half of the state vs. wet in the SE half. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230323/thur-fri-rain-forecast.png I really can't explain this weird pattern, to tell you the truth, although it certainly exists on the synoptic scale, which is impacting us in the mesoscale (large-scale pattern vs. smaller-scale pattern). Consider it a combination of storm systems "coming together" farther east before any good return moisture can make it into western Oklahoma, and just plain bad luck. But, remember...we still have April through June coming up, so hope is still there! Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================