OCS/Mesonet Ticker for September 21, 2023

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. . . Ticker for September 21, 2023 . . .

MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
September 21, 2023 September 21, 2023 September 21, 2023 September 21, 2023

Gosh Wally that's a lot of rain

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/tropic-of-beaver.png

You see, kids, back in the late 1950s and early 1960s, there was a television
show about a wholesome family (they all were back then), the Cleavers. There was
the dad, Ward, and the Mom, Mom. June, maybe? Then there was oldest son Wally
and the titular Beaver. Beaver Cleaver. Of course, Beaver would go on to be named
Beaver THE Cleaver for his favorite instrument of terror. A famous drunkard,
Beaver was known to frequent the local tavern and make ill-timed jokes about
meteorologists. "They just flip a coin!" he would jest about their forecasting
skills. Nobody thought that was funny. Everybody knew that meteorologists were
perhaps the most beloved profession in the land. But then the Cleaver would come
out with the threat of "laugh...or else." The awkward chuckles did little to belay
the Cleaver's anger.

"From this point forward, if somebody tells a joke about a meteorologist, there
had better be laughter or I'll come back. Come back from the dead if I have to,
and make people pay," he promised with an evil glint in his eye. Turns out the
glint was actually just lint from doing his laundry earlier, but that's not
pertinent to the story. I don't know if that unnecessary "g" tacked onto the front
of "lint" would change anything, but what I do know is that from that point
forward, jokes about the weather profession have been laughed at out of fear
rather than humor. The only thing LESS funny are jokes about weather people that
have lost their hair, but I digress.

So make those jokes about us weather folk, and laugh if you must, and indeed
you must, because if you forget, just remember to look behind you on that dark
night walking alone. Check that bathroom mirror late at night when you flip
the lights on. Be wary of what's on the other side of that refrigerator door.
Because you know what will be waiting.

The Cleaver.

Well I had to write something whilst waiting for the new SPC outlook maps to
come out, didn't I?? More on that down below, but since we're talking about
Beaver... it is very strange to have a Panhandle location lead
the state in rainfall for an extended period of time. Maybe over a week or two.
MAYBE. But over a 120-day span? I'd say unheard of, and I've heared (yes...
heared) Oklahoma weather for decades. But there's Beaver with 25.1 inches of
rain over the last 120 days. That total is a whopping 14.8 inches above normal
over that May 24-Sept. 20 stretch, or 243% of normal. So normal is right around
10.3 inches.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/del120day_rain.current.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/pct120day_rain.current.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/nor120day_rain.current.png

Heck, there have been sprinkles up that way this morning, for crying out loud!

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/current-radar.png

How much rain is that for Beaver?

* Beaver's wettest May 24-Sept. 20 on record previous to this year was 22.75"
from 1968, and those records date back to 1896!

* Their wettest 120-day stretch on record (any 120-day stretch) is 27.34" from
May 6 through June 2, again from 1968, so a little more than 2" behind that
previous record.

Maybe that was another year Beaver led the state for that 120-day period? Well,
no. There were three sites ahead of them, led by Carter Tower's 30.62", down
by Ardmore.

But just over the last 10 days, since we've started to see rain again, Beaver
has upped their total by more than 3", while other parts of the state have
seen less than a half-inch.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/10day-rain-totals.png

What about coming up? Well, somebody might finally pass Beaver's total with lots
of rain being forecast for eastern OK. A bit more for western OK and the
Panhandle, but not nearly as much.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/5day-rain-forecast.gif

And a good bit of that will fall today and into tonight with a threat of
severe weather down in southern OK.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/OK_swody1.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/OK_swody1_TORN.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/OK_swody1_WIND.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/OK_swody1_HAIL.png

Best to stay weather aware today, and then again on Saturday, for those severe
threats (ARE THERE ANY OTHER KIND??).

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/OK_swody3.png

Another Oklahoma hazard continues to strengthen despite all the rain. The drought,
with the flash variety across much of the SW half of the state, and the long-term
type in far north central and southwestern OK. In fact, the amount of drought
considered at least extreme (D3) on the Drought Monitor map jumped from 3.5%
last week to 12.2% this week, all across southern OK.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/20230919_ok_trd.png

So that rainfall maximum being forecast (don't laugh...or do I guess) down in
that part of the state will come in handy if it comes to fruition. And things
are looking up from there. We see increased odds of above normal precipitation
as we get out into early October from the CPC outlooks.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/sept28-oct4-outlooks.png

Then when we get out to the October and October-December time frames, we start
to see that familiar El Nino signal start to creep in. As noted by the CPC
seasonal outlook forecast:

"The most recent International Research Institute for Climate and
Society (IRI) plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Despite nearly the same ensemble mean
amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds
of a "strong" El Niño (≥1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average
in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%. In summary, El Niño is anticipated to
continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with a greater than 95%
chance through JFM 2024)."

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/CPCoff_ENSOprobs_092023.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/ENSO-probs.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/model-predictions-of-ens.png

In this table, you can see the probabilities of the strength of the El Nino
as we go through the 3-month periods, peaking at 73% in the Oct-Dec time frame.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/ENSO-strength.PNG

And remember, the strength of the El Nino doesn't mean stronger impacts, it means
that the typical impacts are more likely. For us, we look back to how strong
and super-strong ( < -2C) events have impacted us.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/strong-el-nino-precip.png

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/super-strong-el-nino-precip.png

But let's get to the outlooks!

October:

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/October-outlook.png

And then October-December:

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/october-december.png

Very nice! But as noted, ENSO impacts extend out to spring after peaking during
winter, so those later outlooks are pertinent here as well.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/all-precip-outlooks.gif

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/all-temperature-outlooks.gif

Oof! Who else sees snow in those outlooks? I see snow. You want snow. I want
snow. We all want snow. Climatologically, this bears out for the western 2/3rds
of the state, at least, with increased snowfall more likely.

https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/Snowfall_ElNinoComboMap_Lg.png

Surely those hopes will be dashed? Maybe not, and don't call me Shirley.

Gary "the Cleaver" McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================

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Previous Ticker: September 20, 2023	Following Ticker: September 25, 2023

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. . . Ticker for September 21, 2023 . . .

MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... September 21, 2023 September 21, 2023 September 21, 2023 September 21, 2023 Gosh Wally that's a lot of rain https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/tropic-of-beaver.png You see, kids, back in the late 1950s and early 1960s, there was a television show about a wholesome family (they all were back then), the Cleavers. There was the dad, Ward, and the Mom, Mom. June, maybe? Then there was oldest son Wally and the titular Beaver. Beaver Cleaver. Of course, Beaver would go on to be named Beaver THE Cleaver for his favorite instrument of terror. A famous drunkard, Beaver was known to frequent the local tavern and make ill-timed jokes about meteorologists. "They just flip a coin!" he would jest about their forecasting skills. Nobody thought that was funny. Everybody knew that meteorologists were perhaps the most beloved profession in the land. But then the Cleaver would come out with the threat of "laugh...or else." The awkward chuckles did little to belay the Cleaver's anger. "From this point forward, if somebody tells a joke about a meteorologist, there had better be laughter or I'll come back. Come back from the dead if I have to, and make people pay," he promised with an evil glint in his eye. Turns out the glint was actually just lint from doing his laundry earlier, but that's not pertinent to the story. I don't know if that unnecessary "g" tacked onto the front of "lint" would change anything, but what I do know is that from that point forward, jokes about the weather profession have been laughed at out of fear rather than humor. The only thing LESS funny are jokes about weather people that have lost their hair, but I digress. So make those jokes about us weather folk, and laugh if you must, and indeed you must, because if you forget, just remember to look behind you on that dark night walking alone. Check that bathroom mirror late at night when you flip the lights on. Be wary of what's on the other side of that refrigerator door. Because you know what will be waiting. The Cleaver. Well I had to write something whilst waiting for the new SPC outlook maps to come out, didn't I?? More on that down below, but since we're talking about Beaver... it is very strange to have a Panhandle location lead the state in rainfall for an extended period of time. Maybe over a week or two. MAYBE. But over a 120-day span? I'd say unheard of, and I've heared (yes... heared) Oklahoma weather for decades. But there's Beaver with 25.1 inches of rain over the last 120 days. That total is a whopping 14.8 inches above normal over that May 24-Sept. 20 stretch, or 243% of normal. So normal is right around 10.3 inches. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/del120day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/pct120day_rain.current.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/nor120day_rain.current.png Heck, there have been sprinkles up that way this morning, for crying out loud! https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/current-radar.png How much rain is that for Beaver? * Beaver's wettest May 24-Sept. 20 on record previous to this year was 22.75" from 1968, and those records date back to 1896! * Their wettest 120-day stretch on record (any 120-day stretch) is 27.34" from May 6 through June 2, again from 1968, so a little more than 2" behind that previous record. Maybe that was another year Beaver led the state for that 120-day period? Well, no. There were three sites ahead of them, led by Carter Tower's 30.62", down by Ardmore. But just over the last 10 days, since we've started to see rain again, Beaver has upped their total by more than 3", while other parts of the state have seen less than a half-inch. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/10day-rain-totals.png What about coming up? Well, somebody might finally pass Beaver's total with lots of rain being forecast for eastern OK. A bit more for western OK and the Panhandle, but not nearly as much. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/5day-rain-forecast.gif And a good bit of that will fall today and into tonight with a threat of severe weather down in southern OK. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/OK_swody1.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/OK_swody1_TORN.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/OK_swody1_WIND.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/OK_swody1_HAIL.png Best to stay weather aware today, and then again on Saturday, for those severe threats (ARE THERE ANY OTHER KIND??). https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/OK_swody3.png Another Oklahoma hazard continues to strengthen despite all the rain. The drought, with the flash variety across much of the SW half of the state, and the long-term type in far north central and southwestern OK. In fact, the amount of drought considered at least extreme (D3) on the Drought Monitor map jumped from 3.5% last week to 12.2% this week, all across southern OK. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/20230919_ok_trd.png So that rainfall maximum being forecast (don't laugh...or do I guess) down in that part of the state will come in handy if it comes to fruition. And things are looking up from there. We see increased odds of above normal precipitation as we get out into early October from the CPC outlooks. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/sept28-oct4-outlooks.png Then when we get out to the October and October-December time frames, we start to see that familiar El Nino signal start to creep in. As noted by the CPC seasonal outlook forecast: "The most recent International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of a "strong" El Niño (≥1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%. In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with a greater than 95% chance through JFM 2024)." https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/CPCoff_ENSOprobs_092023.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/ENSO-probs.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/model-predictions-of-ens.png In this table, you can see the probabilities of the strength of the El Nino as we go through the 3-month periods, peaking at 73% in the Oct-Dec time frame. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/ENSO-strength.PNG And remember, the strength of the El Nino doesn't mean stronger impacts, it means that the typical impacts are more likely. For us, we look back to how strong and super-strong ( < -2C) events have impacted us. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/strong-el-nino-precip.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230824/super-strong-el-nino-precip.png But let's get to the outlooks! October: https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/October-outlook.png And then October-December: https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/october-december.png Very nice! But as noted, ENSO impacts extend out to spring after peaking during winter, so those later outlooks are pertinent here as well. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/all-precip-outlooks.gif https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/all-temperature-outlooks.gif Oof! Who else sees snow in those outlooks? I see snow. You want snow. I want snow. We all want snow. Climatologically, this bears out for the western 2/3rds of the state, at least, with increased snowfall more likely. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230921/Snowfall_ElNinoComboMap_Lg.png Surely those hopes will be dashed? Maybe not, and don't call me Shirley. Gary "the Cleaver" McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================