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March 21, 2023 March 21, 2023 March 21, 2023 March 21, 2023
Spring is back!
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230321/wednesday-forecast-highs.png
Hey, I know we need rain, especially across the NW half of the state, but throw
me a frickin' bone here...we also need a bit of spring warmth from time to time.
We've been nearly two weeks in anti-spring mode, after all.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230321/2023-avg-high.temps.png
So before you go all Wednesday Addams on me and start breaking out in hives with
the skin peeling from your bones (her quote, not mine), we can't have storm
systems in the spring in Oklahoma without our customary wind and spike in temps
leading up to the event. AND it is raining right now, for crying out loud!
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230321/current-radar.png
Unfortunately, it didn't fall everywhere, or even where it was needed the most,
but I also understand that most Oklahomans always feel like they needed it the
most. However, the need across NW OK is pretty obvious, and much like my scalp...
glaring.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230321/90day-rain-totals.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230321/del90day_rain.current.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230321/pct90day_rain.current.png
Trust me (it'll be okay, just crank up your anti-virus software), you might
scoff at the quarter-inch you got this morning, but some places in NW OK would
kill for that right now.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230321/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png
So we had the rain today, then a windy, warm day tomorrow with our storm system
(and killjoy cold front) arriving on Thursday. That system will bring us our
next chance of rain. I showed you yesterday a severe risk south of I-40 and
mostly east of I-35. That has since shifted farther to the southeast. I know,
shocker!
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230321/OK_swody3.png
This does not appear to be a bigtime severe weather event, although that could
certainly change. SPC notes that we could see numerous storms and messy storm
mode (like after eating at Taco Bell), which could limit the severe potential
across Oklahoma. Stay tuned for updates as the day draws near. As I've warned
several times over the past few years, DON'T TAKE YOUR HAIR FOR GRANTED!, but
also the forecast could worsen just as easily as improve.
As for our forecast rain totals, same general pattern (should demote it to
lieutenant, at least) as we've seen all year, with SE OK getting the heaviest
totals and NW OK going largely without.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230321/5day-rain-forecast.gif
We're not done with cold weather, or *probably* even freezing weather. Not that
I needed to tell you that, but pointless information is our specialty! We turned
to our friends up to the Great White North and looked at the probability of
seeing freezing temperatures through the first week of April (April 5, to be
exact). Chances are 50% or higher for most of the state.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230321/prob-of-freezing.gif
Looking closer at the modeled output, those chances are greater before April 1
and diminish quickly after that, which is basically climatology with a bit of
near-term weather forecasts thrown in for fine tuning.
Until then, we still have Wednesday!
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
gmcmanus@mesonet.org
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