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September 18, 2024 September 18, 2024 September 18, 2024 September 18, 2024
State Fairly Lame
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240918/30day-stats.png
You know one of the reasons I want "summer" to be gone? Because I had to mow
last night. Oh, I could turn off the sprinkler and let it die, but then how would
I keep up with the McGillicuttys (the Joneses moved long ago)? Plus, this is how
I feel after I mow.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240918/nacho_libre1.jpg
Hey, I don't WANT to call myself a hero, but you know...
But here's the problem with getting almost NO rainfall for the last 30 days...we
actually expect a goodly amount this time of year.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240918/nor30day_rain.current.png
It's not exactly May or June, but it is our secondary rainy season.
In fact, we should expect, climatologically speaking (which is better than
meteorologically speaking because I said so), around 20-30% of our annual
rainfall totals during the August-October time frame.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240918/aug-oct-rainfall.png
See, right now we still have that warm, moist air to rely on to mix with more
frequent cold fronts and storm systems to produce rainfall as the jet stream
follows the temperature gradients southward. Very simply put, warm air can
hold more moisture than cold air. So in a couple of months, our percentages
of annual rainfall start to diminish.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240918/oct-dec-rainfall.png
That's not to diminish the importance of cool-season rains (or snow) though,
because what else goes down during the cool season is the moisture demand
from vegetation as it dies or goes dormant, but also evaporation from heat
and the sun. So there's an important give and take there, and that's what makes
the cool season such an important part of recharging our soils in time for
spring green up. And that's also why La Nina episodes can be drought starters
in Oklahoma as it can sometimes (more often than not) remove that cool-season
recharge.
After all that, for crying out loud, we're still left with getting LESS at this
important time of the year.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240918/del30day_rain.current.png
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240918/pct30day_rain.current.png
And this is all made worse by the increased pressure of above normal temps for
most of the warm season, at least since May. In fact, we're more above normal
NOW than we have been all summer, which is pretty significant when you're still
in September.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240918/warm-season-temps.png
And let's face it...our bigtime relief is still "7-to-10 days out" in fantasy-cast
territory. Not saying it won't happen, but it NEEDS to happen. Not great for
the next week, though.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240918/7day-rain-forecast.png
But JUST AFTER THAT, we're gonna get...ugh. Maybe not.
https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20240918/sept25-oct1-outlooks.png
Gary McManus
State Climatologist
Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climate Survey
gmcmanus@ou.edu
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