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. . . Ticker for May 16, 2023 . . .
MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... May 16, 2023 May 16, 2023 May 16, 2023 May 16, 2023 Surely it will rain this time! https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/3day-rain-forecast.png Yes, we think it really will rain in NW OK this time, and don't call me Shirley. I mean, it's the perfect meteorological setup with a cold front approaching and upslope flow in a moisture-rich environment. Shirley it will HAVE to rain this time, right? We could have added to the hopeful environment by going out to 5 days, but we stuck with the 3-day period for hopefully (I keep using that word, I don't think I know what it means) a forecast with a bit more accuracy, if not precision. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/5day-rain-forecast.gif But know this...the Weather Prediction Center is merely forecasting these amounts based on what the computer forecast models are predicting. Here is an overview of the 3-day rainfall forecast from some of the world's best forecast models. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/3day-GFS-forecast.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/3day-GDPS-forecast.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/3day-ECMWF-forecast.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/3day-NAM-forecast.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/3day-RDPS-forecast.png WPC is seeing it, not only from their 3- and 5-day forecasts above, but in their hazards outlooks. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/day3-7-hazards.png The NWS is seeing it, showing flooding potential for heavy rains Thursday. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/nws-norman-thursday-flood.png So this one HAS to hit, and not only for NW OK but the Panhandle and also other scattered areas of the state that missed out through one of the rainiest 7-day periods in recent memory. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/7day-rainfall.png Woodward, Woods, Dewey, Marshall, Johnston, and Pontotoc counties were all mysteriously missed, for reasons unknown. Why do those NW counties need rain? Their wheat crop is gone, already devastated by drought. Oklahoma's projected winter wheat yield is already down 17.9% from a year ago from a harvest that was also heavily damaged by drought. Almost the entirety of Oklahoma's Wheat Belt was ensconced in drought through its entire life cycle from last fall through present. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/winter-wheat-drought.png https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/may2023-winter.wheat.jpg But there are also farm ponds that need filled to water cattle, and prairie and range grass that needs improvement, not only to feed livestock but to hold that soil in place. And there's the psychological aspect, just the oppressive beatdown of a person's psyche that can pound on you day-by-day without rainfall, let alone the cost to someone's ag operations. So this is our best chance in awhile for significant rain in some of those areas. Hopefully it will extend into next week. https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230516/next-week.png But this is the nature of Oklahoma rainfall in a nutshell. No, literally! Some get way too much, while others get about a nutshell full. We just need to turn hope into reality. Gary McManus State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey gmcmanus@mesonet.org ================================================== The OCS/Mesonet Ticker https://ticker.mesonet.org/ To subscribe or unsubscribe from the Ticker or for questions about the Ticker or its content Phone or Email the Ticker Manager at OCS Phone: 405-325-2253 Email: ticker@mesonet.org --------------------------------------------------- -C- Copyright 2024 Oklahoma Climatological Survey ===================================================